Fantasy Football: 4 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for the Divisional Round

Start Stephen Gostkowski as a Heavy Favorite

Our own Jim Sannes wrote a useful article on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and as favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on heavily-favored teams with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

The New England Patriots are favored by 13.5 points against the Tennessee Titans, which is the largest on the slate. New England easily has the highest implied total of all teams at 30.50 points, as well. Stephen Gostkowski should do very well on a team expected to score more than four touchdowns.

According to Sannes, kickers on teams favored by 10 or more points scored an average of 9.77 points per game between 2012 and 2014. And when kickers are on teams with an implied total of 30 or more points, they scored an average of 10.64 fantasy points.

GOATkowski is expensive on FanDuel, and while I usually steer clear from kickers in the high-price range, he's about as safe as it gets. The metrics indicate he is a great play in all formats.