3 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in the Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs' Passing Offense
As mentioned at the top, there are a ton of great defenses in the playoffs, and some of those are in action this weekend. But that's not a universal fact. Some teams may get to the playoffs because of their offense, and others may just benefit from a weak division or soft overall schedule.
Two of those poor defenses happen to be in the same game. In fact, the two worst defenses through the eyes of Adjusted Defensive NEP per play are going head to head on Saturday when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans. Although the over/under may not be as high as the two NFC games, we should absolutely be scooping up assets tied to this one.
For the Chiefs' defense, the overall number is a bit misleading because this game will be in Kansas City. Opposing quarterbacks had -0.03 Passing NEP per drop back there during the regular season compared to 0.25 when they faced the Chiefs outside of Arrowhead. That hurts the appeal in Marcus Mariota, though his pass catchers are in play, and Derrick Henry would be a stud if DeMarco Murray were to sit again.
On the flip side, there's nothing wrong with Kareem Hunt as a big home favorite who had a big role prior to Week 17, so don't fret about him at $8,200. But he doesn't quite fit in a discussion of favorable matchups. The Titans finished the regular season ranked second against the rush, and they were also second from Week 10 on. That's a decent little road block for Hunt as a rusher. The Chiefs' passing game, though, faces no such restrictions.
For as good as the Titans were against the rush, they were equally bad against the pass. They finished 25th versus opposing aerial attacks for the full season and 23rd from Week 10 on despite facing a laundry list of awful quarterbacks.
From Week 5 on, the Titans faced eight quarterbacks ranked 27th or worse in Passing NEP per drop back. They wound up facing just three guys ranked in the top 15 in that metric; those three averaged 327 yards and 3 touchdowns per game without throwing a single pick. If you're good, you can shred this team.
At least for this year, Alex Smith is firmly qualified as such. He finished the regular season ranked eighth in Passing NEP per drop back, just one spot behind Jared Goff, who took the Titans' defense behind the shed in Week 16. It wasn't just an early-season hot streak for Smith; he was solid on the whole.
This extended into the deep passing game, too. Smith added 1.01 Passing NEP per throw that traveled at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the third-best mark among quarterbacks who attempted at least 60 such passes. The Titans fared well versus the deep ball, but the context of the quarterbacks they faced is abundantly important when noting this.
Smith is $7,800, which makes him cheaper than most of the other palatable options for the slate. He topped 30 FanDuel points twice this year and had at least 24 on three additional occasions, so he has the upside we need for a short slate. Don't worry too much about slotting him in.
The harder question revolves around with which pass catcher you'd want to stack him. There's appeal to both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, giving you a bit of flexibility.
One way to make this choice could be by comparing each player's usage. If one guy is simply getting more looks than the other, it would give him the higher floor of the two, thus making him the preferable option. So, let's break it down that way.
Here's the target distribution profile for both guys. Because neither played in Week 17, we'll omit that game from the calculations.
| Through Week 16 | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 25.3% | 39.2% | 27.9% |
| Tyreek Hill | 21.8% | 28.9% | 5.9% |
Oh. So maybe it's not that hard after all.
Hill's biggest asset is his deep-ball ability, and he was stupidly good with them this year. But Kelce's volume -- whether it be deep, overall, or in the red zone -- is a full tier above that of Hill. When they're both exactly the same price at $7,700, that makes a major difference.
Hill is always a threat for an 80-yard touchdown, and that's fully desirable on a short slate. But Kelce doesn't always need to find the end zone to return value. He hit double-digit points in 10 of 15 games, and three of those games came without the benefit of a touchdown. We also want a high floor on a small slate, and Kelce provides that.
Nobody's going to fault you if you decide to roll Hill over Kelce, and you should likely have exposure to both. But if you're just picking straight up, Kelce's at the position that's harder to fill, his usage is superior, and he's the same price as Hill. That should make him the more popular stacking option between the two.
