3 Bold NFL Predictions for Week 13

Alvin Kamara Won't Be a Top-12 Running Back

Why This Is Bold: Alvin Kamara has been one of the NFL's best players this year, but his recent tear has been beyond impressive. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of the last four games, totaling 152, 138, 116, and 188 yards on just 16, 17, 14, and 11 touches, respectively.

Why This Will Happen: Predicting regression out of Kamara isn't really going out on a limb, because he's been historically efficient. However, he's clearly a supreme talent and good coaching matters (see the difference between Jeff Fisher and Sean McVay, Todd Gurley owners?) -- the New Orleans Saints offense is scheming to get the ball to Kamara to maximize what he does best.

His Rushing NEP is nearly double the next-closest running back (Duke Johnson), which is absolutely absurd. He is extremely good at football, and Kamara has averaged 6.2 targets per game this season, which provides him a safe floor.

The problem is that his touchdown production simply isn't sustainable. And this week, he runs into a tough opponent. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Carolina Panthers rank seventh against the run and fourth against the pass. They are one of the few teams with the athleticism and talent at linebacker to counter Kamara's best traits.

There's no way you're benching Kamara if he's on your fantasy football team, but expectations should be tempered.