Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 7

Avoid Doug Baldwin in a Game With a Low Over/Under

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a bye and are favored by 5.5 points on the road against the New York Giants, featuring Eli Manning and the no-names. The total in this game is just 40 points, and that low total is scaring me off Doug Baldwin.

Over the past two-and-a-half seasons where he's played in games with a total of 40 points or lower, Baldwin has averaged just 7.97 half-PPR fantasy points. Seattle has gone 2-3 against the spread and their games have eclipsed the total in just 2 of 5 games this season.

Baldwin is priced 12th among wide receivers at the price of $7,400. In this matchup, I don't see him returning top-12 value.