Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Start Ezekiel Elliott in a Game With a High Over/Under

Ezekiel Elliott is pretty good at having abs and playing football. Recommending him as a target is certainly risk-averse but he makes for a really strong play based on some Vegas trends.

Since the start of 2016, when the Dallas Cowboys played in games with a high over/under, Zeke has destroyed. Good news, Cowboy connoisseurs, the total in this weekend's bout against the Green Bay Packers is 52 points. Dallas has an implied total of 27 points, the highest on the slate.

Since the beginning of the 2016 season, Green Bay games have gone over the total 69.6% of the time.

According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, in four games with a total of 48 or higher, Zeke has averaged 28.75 half-PPR points. I can't test much higher because Zeke has only played a little over one season in the NFL, but the numbers have trended positively as the total grew.

Even if we looked at games with a total of 45 points or higher, he still averaged 21.74 fantasy points.

Zeke is priced at $8,900 on FanDuel which ranks third among running backs. It's a high price, but Zeke makes sense for those who don't want to pay up for Le'Veon Bell or Kareem Hunt. He is a safe play for cash game lineups.