Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Avoid Leonard Fournette as a Heavy Underdog

With only four starts under his belt, Leonard Fournette is difficult to forecast using just Vegas trends. However, if we follow a few general rules, we can forecast Fournette to likely fall short of his expensive price.

Running backs become game-script dependent, meaning they are sometimes forgotten when a team is forced to abandon running the ball. Earlier this summer, I delved into how running backs performed in wins and in losses and found that running backs scored an average of 3.36 fantasy points per game more in victories.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8.5-point underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This spread is the largest of any game this weekend. The Jags have the lowest implied total on the slate of just 17.75 points.

According to FantasyADHD, Jacksonville has been trailing by a touchdown or more on 41 plays this season. This is how their play selection was split while trailing.

With about one quarter remaining, the game plan quickly changed to plenty more passing. Running plays trended towards being called under 40% of the time.

Since the Steelers are projected to win by more than a touchdown, things could get ugly for Fournette. His price on FanDuel is $7,600, which ranks sixth among running backs. At this price, he is probably worth avoiding in all formats.