2017 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 2.03 | 1-1 | 36.80% | 20 | 4 | -3 |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.52 | 1-0 | 46.80% | 14 | 8 | 5 |
| 10 | Oakland Raiders | 2.79 | 2-0 | 49.50% | 2 | 26 | 5 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 2.84 | 1-1 | 52.40% | 10 | 17 | -5 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.91 | 1-1 | 55.80% | 13 | 13 | -1 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.41 | 2-0 | 69.40% | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | 3.83 | 2-0 | 64.60% | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.86 | 2-0 | 67.30% | 18 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3.88 | 2-0 | 61.60% | 1 | 28 | -1 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 3.91 | 2-0 | 65.30% | 19 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 5.66 | 2-0 | 68.60% | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 5.75 | 1-1 | 71.30% | 3 | 31 | 0 |
There have been a combined 38 points in Carolina’s first two games, so the Panthers have hardly been the most exciting team to watch.
Boring as their games might have been, the Panthers' defense has been an absolute force, allowing just 3.7 yards and -0.30 NEP per play, both tops in the NFL. The offense has lagged behind but looks better in terms of NEP per play (ranked 21st) than yards per play (tied for 29th).
Carolina has been the seventh-best team in terms of third- or fourth-down conversion rate, so this helps explain some of the difference. However, the Panthers have faced the second-longest distance to go on these downs (9.4 yards), so this high conversion rate does not seem all that sustainable.
Like Carolina, Baltimore has climbed up the rankings on the strength of its defense. The Ravens' D is second in Adjusted NEP per play while their offense is 18th. The Ravens' pass defense is tops in the league, per our models, though it is propped up somewhat by its 8 interceptions. They won’t sustain the interception rate, but they do allow the lowest completion percentage (49.3%) through two weeks.
The Ravens' defense may have an opportunity to pad its numbers next week against Jacksonville, but we’ll learn a lot more about this unit in Week 4 and Week 5, when it squares off against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Oakland Raiders
