Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 1

Avoid Ben Roethlisberger as a Road Favorite

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 8.5 points on Sunday when they take on the Cleveland Browns on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is sure to be a popular play on FanDuel and that's not surprising. However, we have a few reasons to be skeptical of paying up for Big Ben.

On FanDuel, Roethlisberger is the fourth-most expensive quarterback at $8,200. This price indicates that his upside is already baked into the price.

According to the Rotoviz Game Splits app, Roethlisberger has done slightly worse against the Browns than he has against other teams. If we look at his fantasy points scored since offensive coordinator Todd Haley joined the team in 2012, he's averaged 19.8 fantasy points in eight games versus the Browns. In all other games, he has averaged 22.93 fantasy points.

Let's also remember that Roethlisberger performs much better in home games. Over the past five seasons, he's averaged 25.89 fantasy points at home while averaging 19.36 on the road.

Another unfavorable trend for Roethlisberger is how non-playoff teams tend to perform against playoff teams in Week 1. According to John Ewing of Bet Labs, non-playoff teams from the previous season facing playoff teams from the previous season are 24-7 against the spread in Week 1 since 2005. The game may not be the blowout that everyone is anticipating.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has also been underwhelming as a road favorite during his career, posting a 22-27-1 record against the spread.

While Roethlisberger has the upside to finish in the top five among quarterbacks this weekend, you really have to pay for it. It would be wise to limit your exposure to this popular play in Week 1.