Which Quarterback From the 2017 Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Games Played: 24 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 145.6 | AY/A: 8.4
Top Statistical Comp: Joe Flacco
Given what happened at Notre Dame this year, DeShone Kizer likely did the right thing in getting the heck up outta Dodge. They finished 4-8, and Kizer even got benched for Malik Zaire in one of the games. Nobody should blame him for leaving early.
Unfortunately, it left his statistical profile entirely uninspiring.
Kizer enters the NFL draft with just 24 games under his belt, putting him well below our desired threshold in that category. In our group of 60, his mark ranks 52nd. Again, it's easy to understand why he left, but it really puts him in a tight spot with regards to experience.
All of this is while simultaneously having unsatisfactory efficiency stats. Among the top five incoming quarterbacks, he ranks last in passer efficiency rating and fourth in AY/A, besting just Watson there. If we expand it to all 60 names again, Kizer is 44th in passer efficiency rating and 46th in AY/A. Each of the other four players on our list had either experience or efficiency, but Kizer appears to have neither.
A quick glance at Kizer's game logs might lead you to believe that his season picked up after the benching during the Stanford game. Over their final five games, Kizer threw 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, protecting the ball better than he did initially. However, that can be a bit misleading when you view the wider scope of what he did before and after the benching.
| Split | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Benching | 203 | 1,775 | 14 | 7 | 8.6 |
| After Benching | 158 | 1,150 | 12 | 2 | 8.2 |
Even though his touchdown-to-interception ratio was better, his AY/A shot down as the team seemed to shift to a more conservative passing attack. He went from averaging 8.74 yards per attempt the first part of the season to just 7.28 after the benching. The result was a disappointing overall season.
Kizer's top comp -- Joe Flacco -- appears to be elite, but Flacco is, not shockingly, far from an efficiency stud in the NFL. He has never finished in the top 10 in Total NEP through nine seasons, and he has been outside the top 15 five times. Flacco's rate stats at Delaware were never tremendous, so although the comp has name value, it's not necessarily a big boon for Kizer.
It's hard to separate a player from a situation, and that's an important distinction to make for Kizer. If a team goes 4-8, they've got more problems than just their quarterback, and we shouldn't punish Kizer for their struggles. However, based on the information we have, Kizer appears to be highly flawed in both experience and efficiency, and that will make his selection a risky one on draft day.
