5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense
There's a reason to love David Johnson this week. His Arizona Cardinals have an implied team total of 26.5, there's no weather to deal with, and they're facing the struggling New Orleans Saints defense.
Shouldn't we also love his teammates?
Yes, Johnson is clearly the most-desirable asset on the Cardinals, and there's a reason his mates lag behind, but they're in this matchup, too. If Johnson is able to feast, they'll be able to generate scoring drives, and that should make us love the dudes he'll drag with him along the way.
This is a matchup where you'd expect it to be the passing game that leads the Cardinals to victory with the way the Saints' defense has performed of late. They're fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play since defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins came off injured reserve in Week 8, and it has allowed them to limit opposing offenses to 84 rushing yards per game over that span.
They haven't shown the same improvements against the pass, ranking 28th there since Rankins' activation, thus prompting the interest in the Cardinals.
Obviously, the passing game includes Johnson, and we should try to squeeze him in where we can. But it also includes Carson Palmer, and we can't overlook him.
Palmer hasn't nearly been this year what he was last year in the efficiency department. He ranks 23rd in Passing NEP per drop back of the 38 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, and he's 15th in Success Rate. Considering how important efficiency is to quarterbacks for fantasy, that's not exactly a player we'd want to target. It also doesn't tell the whole story.
A good majority of Palmer's struggles this year have come on the road. When we split things up to look at Palmer's production by venue, he starts looking a whole lot rosier. The "Fantasy Points" column here is based on FanDuel's scoring rules.
| Venue | Drop Backs | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 296 | 0.22 | 49.66% | 17.57 |
| Road | 234 | -0.10 | 44.02% | 15.38 |
The fantasy output there still hasn't been great, but his overall efficiency is conducive to creating scoring drives. If he can do that this week, he could wind up stumbling into a really solid outing for fantasy, and it's why we can't ignore him while slobbering over Johnson.
One of the main roots of the Cardinals' struggles has been their offensive line, an issue that only amplifies this week with fill-in left tackle D.J. Humphries in concussion protocol. Thankfully, the Saints rank 24th in Sack NEP per drop back, meaning they haven't harmed their opponents with their pass rush, helping lower concerns on that end.
If you want to pivot off Johnson in a stack with Palmer, you've got options. J.J. Nelson will get a boost now that Michael Floyd has been cut, and you could consider him. But the top two options are Larry Fitzgerald and Jermaine Gresham.
Fitzgerald's overall market share this year is 24.67%, and it increases to 26.56% in the red zone. He would seem to be the most likely target to snipe touchdowns from Johnson, making Fitzgerald an interesting selection.
Gresham's increasing role is impossible to ignore. He has at least six targets in four of the past five games, and his market share the past three is up to 19.17%. Given the Cardinals' lofty implied team total and Gresham's stone-minimum salary, he, too, should be in consideration as either a stand-alone play or a stacking partner with Palmer.
