Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned from Week 12

Brandin Cooks Has Become a Risky Start

It’s hard to overstate how impressive Michael Thomas’ rookie season has been for the New Orleans Saints. Both his 0.73 Reception NEP per target and 87.69% Reception Success Rate, which is the percentage of receptions that contribute positive NEP, exceed the league-average among wide receivers.

Thomas is approaching rarified territory. His current pace of 1,147 receiving yards would place him as the fifth-most productive rookie receiver in that category since the NFL merger. Among the luminaries that produced more in their rookie season? Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Odell Beckham. That'll work.

]In all of Thomas' rookie season glory belies a negative trend for one of the Saints' other star receivers, Brandin Cooks. Thomas seems to have overtaken the role as the primary apple of Drew Brees' eye.

Now, to be clear, this role doesn't mean Cooks can't thrive moving forward. In fact, Brees is notorious for spreading the ball around, so Cooks is by no means toast. But in Week 12, he garnered exactly zero targets to Thomas' 10 targets, making it the fifth game of the last six that Cooks didn't out-pace Thomas in targets.

Cooks could be due for a nice bounce-back game this week as the Saints square up against the Detroit Lions' last-ranked pass defense. When the Saints are facing leaky pass defenses -- as they do in Week 14 and 16 when they square up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 19th-ranked pass defense -- it's definitely going to be hard to sit Cooks.

Still, if Cooks can't re-establish a respectable target share, trusting him in the fantasy football playoffs will be a risky proposition, even in cake matchups. So for now, if you have better options, the best approach to Cooks might be to wait and see if he bounces back in Week 13.