Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 10

Avoid Carson Palmer as a Heavy Favorite

We are starting this article with back-to-back Carsons. If Carson Daly is next on the list, please call for help.

The Arizona Cardinals are huge favorites over the San Francisco 49ers at 13.5 points, the biggest spread of all games played this season. In these situations, Carson Palmer has underwhelmed.

Back in Week 4, the Cards were favored by 10 versus the Los Angeles Rams, and they lost by a final score of 17-13. Palmer threw just one touchdown. If we dig further, we can see that Palmer has not fared well in these games throughout his career.

According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, Palmer has played in 7 games as a 10.5-point favorite or higher and has averaged 15.84 standard fantasy points per game. His career average in all other games is 19.29.

This makes sense, logically, because teams that are heavily favored are expected to be leading the entire game, which should lead to more carries for the running backs.

The total in this game is somewhat high at 48 points, but it opened at 49 points. The Cardinals have an implied total of 30.75 points, the highest in the NFL this weekend. Usually, we would love to target that high of an implied total.

However, Palmer is priced at $7,900, sixth-highest among quarterbacks on FanDuel. With his history of underperforming in games like this and his high price on FanDuel, I cannot recommend him as a start in daily fantasy football.