Week 9 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots
Running Back
Chalk:
The ownership at running back is likely to be focused on Ezekiel Elliott at the top end, and for good reason. Eazy E draws an awesome matchup, and game script sets up for a monster performance. In the middle of the price pool, daily fantasy players are likely to go back to the well with Devontae Booker in a terrific matchup against the Oakland Raiders. With several top-end options in great spots this week (Rodgers, Elliott, Antonio Brown), FanDuel players will be looking for value, meaning replacement options such as Charcandrick West and DuJuan Harris (if Carlos Hyde sits) could end up being popular options, with the former likely to be very chalky if Spencer Ware does end up sitting.
Pivots:
Le'Veon Bell, $8,700 (at Baltimore Ravens): Le'Veon Bell isn't going to go completely overlooked this week -- I get it. People are definitely going to want to roster Bell. However, with everyone trying to squeeze the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Ezekiel Elliott, and Bell's teammate, Antonio Brown, into their lineups, is there really any way that Bell ends up being a popular option? There's just not enough salary to make it work. Even if you think he remains fairly popular, there's no way he sees higher ownership than Elliott against the Cleveland Browns.
Bell's unique usage this season is something we haven't really seen and has provided him with an incredible floor. Despite scoring zero touchdowns through four games, he has averaged 19 FanDuel points (second-highest among backs on the slate) and has yet to dip below 15 points. The reason for his unrivaled week-to-week floor is his involvement in the passing game. Bell has averaged a ridiculous 9.3 targets this season, which is 2.1 higher than the next highest running back. As a result, he has averaged 24.8 touches per game, which he has turned into 147 yards from scrimmage per game. The only thing keeping him from having jaw-dropping fantasy numbers at this point are the lack of touchdowns.
Bell should also benefit from the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is set to return this week. Bell has averaged more FanDuel points with Big Ben in the lineup over the past three seasons, thanks in large part to the fact that he has seen 0.8 more targets, 29 more receiving yards, and 0.2 more receiving touchdowns per game while playing with Roethlisberger.
Melvin Gordon, $7,800 (vs Tennessee Titans): Similar to Bell, Melvin Gordon will go overlooked due to a tough matchup on paper, but his volume makes him worth a look as a pivot off of DeMarco Murray, who should be fairly popular, assuming his health checks out prior to kickoff. Gordon hasn't been as involved in the passing game as Bell has, but he does have four games with 7 targets this season and has averaged 24.4 touches per game following the injury to Danny Woodhead.
What makes Gordon a truly unique fantasy asset is his usage in the red zone. He easily leads the league in red zone carries with 35, and his 9 carries from inside the five-yard line rank third. He is also one of just three backs to account for 100 percent of his team's carries from inside the five-yard line. He's also seen five targets in the red zone, and his two red zone receiving touchdowns rank second for the San Diego Chargers. All 10 of his touchdowns have come in the red zone this season -- a number that leads the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans have defended the run well this season, but they also haven't faced very tough competition. Gordon has shown the ability to put up solid FanDuel performances against other imposing defenses (17.7 points against the Kansas City Chiefs and 17.5 against the Denver Broncos). With San Diego projected for the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points), Gordon's touchdown upside is near the top of the league once again this week.
Jay Ajayi, $7,100 (vs New York Jets): The Jay Ajayi sensation has happened so quickly that it's been hard to appreciate. Let's take a second to recap. First in Rushing NEP per play among qualified backs? Correct -- Ajayi, who is nearly double the next-highest contestant. One of four backs ever to rush for 200-plus yards in back to back games? Check. First in Rushing Success Rate? You know it's yo' boy Jay. Leading the NFL in yards per carry (6.4) by a wide margin? Surely you know the drill by now.
Despite all this, Ajayi comes into this week as just the eighth-most expensive back on the slate. Even more mind boggling is the fact that the dude who is averaging 30.7 FanDuel points in his two games as a workhorse back is going to go overlooked this week as the eighth-most expensive back.
Don't get me wrong, the New York Jets are a tough run defense and a unit that is almost always worth avoiding in fantasy. This is the same group that allowed David Johnson to total 138 yards and 3 touchdowns against them just three weeks ago. I'm not ready to compare Ajayi to Johnson after two games, but until we see him fall back down to earth, he deserves our attention, regardless of the matchup. His price tag makes him a direct pivot to Devontae Booker, who appears likely to be much more popular.
