Fantasy Football: 4 Things We Learned From Week 7
Allen Robinson's Regression Is Hitting Fantasy Owners Hard
Blake Bortles is the worst. No, seriously I mean it.
In 2015, even with accounting for the 35 passing touchdowns he put up, Bortles still finished as a bottom third quarterback in terms of passing efficiency. Put simply, for fantasy purposes, Bortles was playing above his head last year.
Indeed, Bortles has shown negative regression in 2016, registering a 0.00 Passing NEP per drop back, down from a still bad 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back in 2015.
And one could be tempted to blame the current lull Allen Robinson is experiencing as a byproduct of Bortles' struggles. Surely, the quarterback/receiver productivity spectrum often swings in tandem, and if Bortles is struggling, so too will his receivers.
But I'm not buying it (at least not completely). Bortles' struggles are real, but not all of his receivers are performing poorly.
| Receiver | Rec | Rec NEP | Targets | Rec NEP/Tar | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 26 | 34.25 | 55 | 0.62 | 88.46% |
| Allen Hurns | 24 | 20.81 | 45 | 0.46 | 75.00% |
| Marqise Lee | 29 | 27.37 | 38 | 0.72 | 93.10% |
What seems to be hurting Robinson is a combination of things. First, he just hasn't been as efficient as he was in 2015, when he put up a 0.82 Reception NEP per target.
Additionally, he's not moving the chains as successfully when he does catch the ball, as evidenced by his 88.46% Reception Success Rate. During his 2015 campaign he put up a 93.75% Reception Success Rate.
The primary benefactor of the lost Bortles/Robinson connection seems to be Marqise Lee. Lee, the Jaguars' slot receiver, has received nearly seven targets per game in the last five games.
And those targets have been well deserved. Despite garnering most of his looks in the short passing game, Lee has managed to outpace Robinson's efficiency and Reception Success Rate. Just as we all predicted he would headed into the season.
Robinson will likely get back on track at some point this season, and he's still averaging nine targets per game. But it's almost a virtual guarantee that he won't reach the stratospheric heights of his 2015 campaign this season. And at this point, if you have other stellar options, it'd be hard to blame you for sitting him until he and Bortles are simpatico once again.
