Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 7

Start Giovani Bernard as a Double-Digit Favorite

The Cincinnati Bengals are currently favored by 10.5 points at home versus the Cleveland Browns. This situation sets up well for both Bengals running backs but is likely to benefit Giovani Bernard the most.

Since Marvin Lewis took over the Bengals back in 2003, the team has done well running the ball when favored by 10 or more points at home. In that situation, according to the Rotoviz Team Splits app, Lewis' teams rushed about 34.5 times for roughly 147.4 yards per game. That is about 6 more rushing attempts and 36 more rushing yards per game than Lewis' career average in all games.

It's also worth noting that the Bengals have passed less in games where they were favored by 10 points or more. The pass attempts dropped about three per game from his career average. The passing yards also dropped about 18 yards.

According to Fantasy Data, Bernard took two-thirds of the team's snaps in Week 6. He also received all of the goal line carries last week.

With the spread being 10.5 points, the Bengals are expected to be leading early and often, which should lead to many touches for Bernard.

Bernard is priced at $6,300 on FanDuel, which ranks 22nd in cost among running backs. At that price, he is a value in both cash and tournament games.