Market Share Report: Don't Give Up on Lamar Miller
Carry Market Shares
1. Add Jordan Howard to the List of Bellcows
Earlier this year, Jeremy Langford got us all in a tizzy by playing 96.4% of the team's snaps in Week 1. So please pardon us for doing it all over again for Jordan Howard.
With Langford on the sidelines, Howard played 95.5% of the snaps Sunday, his second consecutive game over 90%. Ka'Deem Carey was active this time around, yet Howard handled 16 of the 17 running-back carries while also snagging three targets. He had 19 touches in a game where they trailed most of the way, and that has to have his owners encouraged for his outlook.
Langford may return within the next few weeks, at which point we'll have to reevaluate Howard's fantasy viability, though Howard has made a convincing case to be the team's top option. And until then, Howard's a locked-in workhorse with a solid floor and ceiling.
2. C.J. Anderson's Workload Is Alarming
Week 5 wasn't quite as rosy for C.J. Anderson.
He was in that high-snap zone during the season opener, logging 82.8% of the snaps for the Denver Broncos. He had been well below that Weeks 2 through 4, but then bottom fell out on Sunday. Anderson played just 51.4% of the snaps, yielding 41.4% of the snaps and 6 of 17 running-back carries to fourth-round rookie Devontae Booker. It was the worst game for Anderson from a usage perspective, and no other game comes close.
What's even worse for Anderson is that this dip in playing time is justifiable. Anderson's Success Rate -- the percentage of plays on which he increases the team's expected points for the drive, per numberFire's Net Expected Points metric -- is just 34.5%. The league average for running backs is 39.6%, and Booker's at 44.8% while running behind the same offensive line. Anderson's not running effectively, and he's losing work because of it. That's absolutely cause for concern.
In season-long leagues, Anderson's price will be low due to his past few games, but it's still worth it to float out some feelers to see if you can sell. And for DFS, until his price better reflects his current role, it's likely best to pump the brakes.
3. LeGarrette Blount's Floor Has Evaporated
You knew that LeGarrette Blount's workload would decrease with the return of Tom Brady when the New England Patriots would likely shift to a more pass-heavy approach. It was just hard to know it'd get so bad so quickly.
Even though Blount got 18 carries Sunday, he lost 5 to James White and 6 to D.J. Foster. He played just 38.8% of the snaps in a game the Patriots won by 20 points. That's normally a game where Blount gets the rock with regularity, and that didn't really happen. Can you imagine what his usage would have looked like in a closer game?
Because of his goal-line role, Blount is going to have fantasy value going forward. It's just going to be much riskier to roster him on a regular basis, and his new-found floor affects both his cash-game and tournament viability.