Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 46.50
Bears Implied Team Total: 21.75
Lions Implied Team Total: 24.75
This game feels like one that could exceed the 46.5-point over/under as we get a matchup between two of the worst defenses in the league. Both the Detroit Lions (28.3 points allowed per game) and Chicago Bears (27.7) rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense and Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back, with the Lions checking in last. With both teams dealing with injuries to their starting running backs, there could be plenty of passing.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
FanDuel Price: $7,600
Marvin Jones leads all wide receivers in FanDuel points through three weeks and has a good chance to keep building on his breakout season in Week 4 against a banged-up Chicago defense. The Bears are currently dealing with injuries to six defensive starters, including top corner Kyle Fuller.
Per Raybon's piece on Vegas odds, "Winning teams score 0.64 more receiving touchdowns per game than losing teams, and favorites score 0.38 more receiving touchdowns per game than underdogs. Assuming six points per touchdown, that equates to a 3.84-fantasy-point difference for winners versus losers and a 2.28-fantasy-point difference for favorites versus underdogs." With Detroit listed as 3-point favorites against the decimated 0-3 Bears, history would suggest that game script sets up for a 2-to-4 point boost in production for Jones.
Averaging 10 targets per game through the first three weeks, Jones is the clear number-one option for what should be one of the best passing attacks this week.
Zach Miller, TE, Chicago Bears
FanDuel Price: $5,000
After playing 79% of their snaps through the first two weeks, Zach Miller was in for 100% of the offensive snaps for Chicago in Week 3. As a result, new quarterback Brian Hoyer looked his way early and often, targeting him nine times on the day. He turned those targets into 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 scores, making him the highest-scoring tight end on FanDuel last week.
In Week 4, Miller draws a dream matchup against the Lions, who have given up the most touchdowns (5) and fantasy points to opposing tight ends through three weeks. Detroit allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends in 2015, as well, so this season's early results carry a bit more weight than most three-week sample sizes.
Speaking of touchdowns, Miller leads the Bears in red zone targets through three weeks and has accounted for three of their four targets from inside the 10-yard line. If this game does turn into a shootout in which the Bears are trailing, Miller should have a very productive day.
Others to Consider
Alshon Jeffery seemed noticeably hobbled last week and draws a tough matchup against Darius Slay. With Jeffery's price still at $8,200, Kevin White ($5,500) would appear to be the clear way to go if rostering a Chicago receiver. White led the team in targets last week with 14, and he should have no trouble against Detroit's pass defense that has ranked dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play this season. With Jeremy Langford and Ka'Deem Carey both dealing with injuries, rookie Jordan Howard isn't a bad dart throw at $5,600.
Golden Tate has appeared to be phased out of Detroit's offense in 2016, and as a result, he has seen his price drop to $6,200. However, Coach Jim Bob Cooter said this week that Tate will see more touches going forward. Against Chicago's ghost of a defense, Tate could be an interesting off-the-wall tournament play.
Theo Riddick showed last week what most of us already suspected -- that he isn't fit to be a between-the-tackles running back, totaling 9 rushing yards on 10 attempts last week. Cooter said this week that rookie Dwayne Washington is building confidence and should see more carries going forward. At just $4,500, he is a very intriguing punt play against Chicago.
