5 NFL Players Whose 2015 Metrics Should Be Ignored Entering 2016
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
For running backs with more than 100 carries, no one was worse than rookie Melvin Gordon on a per-carry basis (although Matt Jones was close). Gordon's -0.19 Rushing NEP per rush was truly abysmal, reflecting his inefficiency per attempt (3.5 yards), his astounding zero touchdowns on 184 rushes, and his 6 fumbles (4 lost). Gordon struggled to create behind a beat up offensive line, and the San Diego Chargers looked foolish for trading up to draft him in the first round.
Offseason microfracture surgery tanked Gordon's value, and at the start of the preseason he could be had a late seventh-round selection. That said, an exciting preseason that saw him produce two long touchdowns (a 39-yard run and a 44-yard catch) has caused his stock to rebound to a more defensible mid-fifth-round ADP.
The fifth-round price is actually fair. What has changed?
A big part is the health of the offensive line for the San Diego Chargers. In 2015, right tackle Joe Barksdale was the only player to start 16 games. The team was ranked as 31st in run blocking according to Football Outsiders, and it was evident that Gordon simply didn't trust his blocking as the year progressed. The unit will be back healthy in 2016, which should bode well for Gordon.
While there is a perception that Danny Woodhead was a more effective runner last season, but that's a bit misleading. He averaged fewer per carry than Gordon at just 3.4, struggling to find room behind that battered offensive line. Where he excelled, however, was in his ball security and versatility in the red zone as both a runner in shotgun sets and a receiver.
Gordon is still the most effective between-the-tackles runner on the team, and his output in the receiving game (33 receptions in 2015), while not nearly as proficient as Woodhead, is great to see. Coming out of Wisconsin no one really knew how he would fare in the passing game, and he proved to be competent (and potentially explosive if you believe in the preseason tape).
Finally, I believe in the narrative that the Chargers' brass want to see their investment in Gordon pay off. Spending a first-round pick on a running back had gone out of style, and the coaches and managers don't want to seem foolish. While this alone won't keep Gordon on the field, it will earn him opportunities (and a workload) that wouldn't be afforded to other players with less of a draft pedigree, meaning the first time he fumbles in 2016 won't be the last time he sees the field.
The ineffective Gordon had 217 touches in 14 games last season. That projects to 244 touches over a 16-game season, which is likely a baseline given his inefficiency as a rookie. Gordon doesn't have to be a superstar to hit 300 touches this year; he just has to be a tad better than average. With his fifth-round price tag and built-in upside (who knows? maybe he is a superstar), Gordon is worth targeting as your RB2.
