College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/14/15
It's now Week 11 in the college football season, as we're one step closer to the end of the regular season and the start of the playoff season.
That's awesome, and there's no denying the excitement that comes with conference and national championships, but sadly that also means that the college football DFS season is winding down and the opportunities to cash in on some great games are running out.
But it's not time for that yet -- it's time to gear up for another Saturday of college football action. Who should you be targeting in this week's matchups?
Our in-house projections are here to help me guide you in the right direction. These projections produce team-based statistics based on our algorithms, so this type of approach is logical, as the basic principles of any daily fantasy sport are to target high point projections and teams that are supposed to perform well offensively.
Now that you know the method to the madness, let's get to the picks.
Early Slate - Trevone Boykin, TCU ($10,400)
Though they should be more than enough, Boykin's talent and production aren't the sole reason for rolling out the Heisman candidate this week. He's averaging 39.3 FanDuel points per game on the year but Kansas' defense isn't just bad: it's terrible. The Jayhawks are near the bottom of the entire nation in adjusted yards allowed per pass (8.21) and adjusted yards allowed per rush (5.19). Then it's no surprise that the Horned Frogs have a ridiculous implied total of 58 points with an over/under of 71 in this matchup. As a result, we project Boykin and TCU to throw for nearly 325 yards and rush for nearly 240 on the ground. Boykin's in for a gigantic day.
Late Slate - Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati ($8,800)
Even in a shorter nine-game slate there are several solid quarterback options in this week's late games. The best play I see, dollar for dollar, is Kiel. The Bearcats' quarterback is coming off a 500-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Houston a week ago and has an even better opportunity this week against Tulsa's awful defense. Tulsa is in the bottom 25 in the nation in both adjusted yards per pass and adjusted yards per rush, so you tell me why Kiel wouldn't have a field day. Our numbers expect him to do just that as we project Cincinnati to throw for nearly 325 yards in a high-scoring affair.
Top Running Backs
Early - Elijah Hood, North Carolina ($7,000)
As it turns out, the Tar Heels were the number one team to have exposure to last week -- and I can't say you shouldn't this week either. The Tar Heels find themselves in a favorable matchup with the Miami Hurricanes, as they are 12.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 65 points. This is a particularly great matchup for Tar Heel ball carriers because the Hurricanes have struggled to stop the run, allowing 4.98 adjusted yards per rush. In terms of toting the rock, Hood is the main guy for North Carolina with over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. He's a great target at a very decent price.
Late - Devontae Booker, Utah ($8,200)
In the late slate, I'm looking to get big production out of one of the many top backs. I'm not willing to pay up too much though because Booker might be the highest scoring back at just the fourth-highest price. That's right -- we expect Utah to rush for over 200 yards against an Arizona team giving up over four adjusted yards per rush and getting six points from Vegas. That sounds like a great game script for Booker to get a ton of carries and do a lot of damage on the ground Saturday.
Top Wide Receivers
Early - KaVontae Turpin, TCU ($5,200) & James Washington, Oklahoma State ($7,600)
Any other week I'd be dialing up Josh Doctson's number along with the aforementioned Mr. Boykin's, but this isn't any other week. Doctson comes into this week with a wrist injury -- which he will play through -- and he could be on a snap count or a short leash in a likely blowout so I'll looking elsewhere in the TCU passing game. KaVontae Turpin finished on a high note a week ago when he grabbed 7 catches for 107 yards. In fact, Turpin has seven catches in his last two games. He's a great value at this price.
If you find the available value elsewhere you should be able to fit a stud like James Washington into your early slate lineups this Saturday. Washington should prove to be a valuable investment against a mediocre Iowa State pass defense. The Cyclones give up 7.39 adjusted yards per pass so we project them to get thrown all over by the Cowboys for over 285 yards. With an implied total of 37.5 points, the Oklahoma State wideout is all but guaranteed a touchdown to go with his big yardage totals.
Late - Anthony Miller, Memphis ($6,800) & Shaq Washington, Cincinnati ($6,200)
Anthony Miller will be playing in a game that I will surely be watching this Saturday, not only because both teams come in as ranked AAC teams but because it will be a high-scoring game (as evidenced by an over/under of 70.5). Houston comes in as seven-point favorites at home so look for Memphis and Paxton Lynch to do a lot of throwing in order to stay in the game. As a matter of fact, we predict Memphis to pass for over 275 yards against Houston's exploitable defense. Miller should be in line for several targets and might even account for a touchdown or two. He has five total touchdowns in his last four games; let's see if Miller can make it six in five.
Another Washington? I know right, but I can't help but target the best receiver the Bearcats have to offer. As I mentioned above, Cincinnati is going to do a lot of passing so I'd look for Kiel to get Washington heavily involved in this week's attack. Washington has had at least one touchdown or eight catches in his last three games so it would be smart to slide him into your lineups at such a reasonable price.
Top Tight Ends
Early - Josiah Price, Michigan State ($2,800)
Unlike most weeks, I won't be completely fading the tight end position this time around. There really aren't any appealing low cost options and there are actually some very favorable matchups for mid priced players. For my money, I'll be looking at Josiah Price of Michigan State, who has just 13 catches on the year but 5 for touchdowns. We project the Spartans to pass for over 250 yards versus Maryland, and with an implied total of 35 points (or 5 touchdowns) Price is a likely touchdown candidate.
Late - Stephen Anderson, California ($3,700)
Cal, with arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, loves to throw the ball a lot. Their top wide receiver, Kenny Lawler, is probable to play with a gluteal bruise but he had just two catches a week ago. If the injury hinders him at all, expect Cal to look toward their star tight end, Stephen Anderson. He has 34 catches and 2 touchdowns on the year, but he has the potential to go off on a team our model sees throwing for well over 300 yards against the Beavers of Oregon State.