College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/24/22
Taking place every Thanksgiving Day, the "Egg Bowl" might be one of college football's most underrated rivalries.
Mississippi State and Mississippi square off in Oxford this year, and while these squads used to be SEC bottom feeders, they've brought in two of the best playcallers in the country to create high-paced shootouts annually.
Should we bet on points this year?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 59.5 (-110) - 5 Stars
There's no reason for the total to be this low.
Both of these teams have electric offenses that play fast. Ole Miss is 4th in the country in seconds per play, and Mississippi State is 44th.
The Bulldogs, though, make up for it with the nation's highest pass rate (70.2%) behind veteran quarterback Will Rogers. They're averaging 31.2 points per game and will attack a Rebels secondary that's just 51st in passing yards per play allowed (7.0 YPA).
I'd still guess Ole Miss outscores Mississippi State, though. Their offense is a rush-heavy, up-tempo attack led by Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. They've scored 32.9 points per contest and made ground against Alabama and Texas A&M, so Mississippi State's 97th-ranked rush defense (in terms of YPA) won't be too scary.
Bizarrely, this is a primetime island game where the over isn't getting any love. Just 47% of bets and 29% of the money are on the over in this spot, but numberFire's model gives it a 74.5% chance to hit. Against these 52.5% implied odds, let's enjoy some points with our pumpkin pie.