College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/26/21

Is there value on a wide spread for the Bearcats this weekend as they continue to push for style points with the committee? What other bets stand out on "Black Friday" in college football?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Ohio vs Bowling Green

Bowling Green (+5.5): 2 Stars out of 5

Bowling Green is 3-8 this season and only 1-6 in MAC conference games, but they did pull a major upset against Minnesota in the non-conference earlier this season.

The Falcons face an Ohio team that is 3-8 on the year and 3-4 in MAC games. However, Ohio was a major disappointment in the non-conference; they even lost at home against Duquesne of the FCS on way to an 0-4 start. The Bobcats have played better recently, with one-score victories against Miami (OH) and Eastern Michigan in early November, but they are still as big of an unknown as Bowling Green -- if not more.

Jaison Patterson will be the key for Bowling. Ohio is 111th in the country in rushing yards per game allowed (205.6), so the shifty back has a chance to play his best game of the year.

Our model gives Bowling Green a 58.21% chance to cover the spread, making this a two-star bet.

Iowa vs Nebraska

Nebraska (+1.5): 3 Stars out of 5

Iowa is 9-2 this season, and Nebraska is 3-8, so you wouldn’t necessarily expect this to be a competitive football game.

Nebraska, though, has to be one of the best three-win teams in college football in a long time. The Cornhuskers have lost seven (!) games by one score or less this season, including one-score losses to Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- all currently ranked in the AP Poll. They lost by nine to playoff-bound Ohio State as well.

Iowa's record is much better, but they have six wins by 10 points or fewer, and they have no wins against teams currently ranked in the top-25 teams of the AP Poll.

Our model, understandably, thinks Nebraska will win this game outright. It's predicting a 23.59-20.04 final, and we give Nebraska a 64.84% chance to cover.

That's good for a three-star bet.

Cincinnati vs East Carolina

Cincinnati (-14.5): 1 Star out of 5

Cincinnati continues to make their push for the playoff, and they look to finish the regular season undefeated with a victory over East Carolina. The Bearcats have dominated the last two weeks with a 17-point victory over South Florida followed up with a 34-point victory over Southern Methodist.

East Carolina is having a good season at 7-4, but the Bearcats will be by far their biggest challenge of the season. Our model does not think their defense will be strong enough to compete, and we predict a 39.38-22.69 Cincinnati victory.

ECU may be able to contain Desmond Ridder (206.8 passing yards per game allowed; 30th in the nation), but Jerome Ford could lead this dual-threat attack. The Pirates are just 80th in the country against the run entering a matchup with their best offensive line and running back faced to date.

We project a 55.56% likelihood that Cincinnati will cover the 14.5 point betting line, making this a one-star betting opportunity.