College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 9/23/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Marshall vs. Appalachian State

Marshall +7.5: 1 Star out of 5

Marshall got off to a good start this season with blowout wins over Navy (49-7) and FCS opponent NC Central (44-10), but they struggled last week and suffered a four-point loss to East Carolina to drop to 2-1.

Appalachian State, on the other hand, beat East Carolina 33-19 in their season opener and then lost to Miami (FL) on a last second field goal. They also beat FCS opponent Elon 44-10.

Despite their loss last week, Marshall outgained East Carolina 647-561 in total yards, and they dominated the ground game, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The Thundering Herd lost the turnover battle 3-1, which proved crucial, and they lost the 4th quarter 21-0.

If Marshall can take better care of the football on Thursday, they should expect to at least play if close with the Mountaineers. Our model gives Marshall a 54.72% chance to cover the spread of +7.5, so we like Marshall here as a modest one-star bet.

Under 58.5: 5 Stars out of 5

Our model loves the under in this game, projecting a game total of 48.97, which is almost 10 points lower than the 58.5 point total. Marshall went over 58.5 last week, but their first two games did not, and App State has not had any of their three games go over that total yet this season.

The Mountaineers are a talented defensive team that returned 10 starters from last season. They have yet to allow more than 23 points in a game, and their defense is averaging only 20.67 points allowed so far.

Our model believes App State will be able to contain the Thundering Herd, and we project Marshall to only score 20.80 points on Thursday night.

Overall, our model gives a 71.92% likelihood of the under, making it a five-star bet.