College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/10/2021
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Coastal Carolina -25.5: 5 Stars out of 5
This game has all the makings for a mismatch, and Kansas is deservedly a huge underdog. Coastal Carolina went 11-1 last season, including a 15-point victory away against Kansas, and they started this season off with a 52-14 win over The Citadel.
Coastal is well respected this season at number-22 in the rankings, and they return 19 starters, so they may even improve from last season. On the flip side, Kansas went 0-9 last year and lost seven games by more than 20 points. The Jayhawks started this year with a three-point win over South Dakota of the FCS.
Our model loves Coastal to cover this big spread, giving them an 87.03% chance to do so. We have this as a very strong five-star betting opportunity, projecting a final score of 49.81-10.33.
Boise State -25.5: 5 Stars out of 5
UTEP is off to a 2-0 start, but they have faced poor competition with wins over New Mexico State (1 win vs. FBS teams since 2019) and Bethune Cookman of the FCS. Last season the Minors went 3-5 with two wins over FCS opponents, so they have struggled against any FBS opponents -- let alone quality ones.
Boise started off the season with a tough five-point loss at Central Florida, but they are coming off a good 5-2 campaign last year. The Broncos scored 40 or more points in four out of their seven games last year, so they certainly have a good track record of offensive production.
Our algorithm loves this as another five-star betting opportunity, giving the Broncos a 75.21% chance to cover the 25.5-point spread. Our model predicts a final score 44.25-11.33 in favor of Boise State.