College Football Betting Guide: Friday 12/4/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Appalachian State

Over 50.5: 1 Star out of 5

Louisiana-Lafayette has had a great season, sitting at 8-1, and they went on an offensive rampage last week against Louisiana-Monroe, winning 70-20. Overall, they’ve averaged 35 points per game this season, and they've scored 30 or more in five of their nine games.

On the flip side, Appalachian State are 7-2 and had an offensive outburst of their own last week in a 47-10 win over Troy. App State has been slightly less prolific than Louisiana-Lafayette on offense, scoring just 30.4 points per game, but they have put up 30 or more in six of their nine games.

Our model thinks this will be a great game, giving the edge to App State by a projected score of 26.90-24.99. This gives us 51.89 total points, which would be a point more than the listed total of 50.5. It's not great value, but we like the over as a one-star bet, giving it a 55.8% chance of hitting.