College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/12/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Colorado State vs. Boise State

Boise State -14.5: 1 Star out of 5
Boise State to win -650: 4 Stars out of 5

Boise State got off to a hot start to the season with blowout victories over Utah State and Air Force propelling them to a 2-0 start. However, they fell victim to playoff hopefuls BYU last Friday in a 51-17 beatdown.

Colorado State is probably a mediocre Mountain West team at best, starting off 1-1 with a 21-point loss to Fresno State followed by a 10-point win over Wyoming. The Rams look average so far this year, and that's without having played any of the top teams in the league. Last season they finished 4-8 (3-5 in conference games). Boise should be able to handle them fairly easily.

Our projections give Boise a 91.1% chance to win outright, and we give them a 56.37% chance to cover. We like both the moneyline and spread for the Broncos, even with them being a large favorite.