College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 12/21/19
Saturday offers up six bowl games, the most we'll see in a single day during the entire Bowl Season.
The games range from 40.5-point over/unders to 68.5-point totals, so it's a wide ranging slate, but it's also as full as we'll get until next season -- and only one game has a point spread greater than 4.0 points. Which plays stand out on FanDuel's main slate?
Shane Buechele ($10,500) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls - Buechele is the most expensive player on the slate and faces a Florida Atlantic team that ranks 19th in adjusted yards per attempt defensively. However, Buechele ranks top 30 in QBR and leads an SMU offense that is 27th in adjusted yards per attempt on offense. Additionally, the Southern Methodist Mustangs have a slate-high 36.0-point implied team total as 3.5-point favorites. All signs point to Buechele paying off despite a tough matchup.
Layne Hatcher ($9,400) vs. Florida International Golden Panthers - Hatcher's Arkansas State Red Wolves are 24th in adjusted passing yards per attempt offensively, and the FIU defense is only 78th defensively. The freshman is 11th in the NCAA in passing yards per game and -- like Buechele -- has a high total (60.5) and a close spread (2.5 points). The script sets up for another strong outing. Hatcher has 299 or more yards in seven of his past eight games.
Chris Robinson ($8,300) vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs - Robinson, opposite Buechele, obviously is in a game with a slate-high 68.5-point total, and the Owls' implied total of 32.5 points is second-highest on the slate. Robinson averages 261.2 yards per game with 26 touchdowns to 6 picks on the year. SMU ranks 93rd in adjusted passing yards per attempt allowed, and FAU is 32nd offensively.
Others to Consider: Stephen Calvert ($7,100)
Darrynton Evans ($10,000) vs. Alabama-Birmingham Blazers - Evans and the Appalachian State Mountaineers are 16.5-point favorites over UAB and carry a hefty 31.75-point implied team total. The Mountaineers are the only adjusted rushing offense inside the top 50 on this slate, and they're 28th. Evans is 24th in the nation in rushing attempts per game at 18.2 and 23rd in yards per game at 101.8. Evans is also fifth in red zone carries per game.
Xavier Jones ($9,700) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls - Jones is 19th in carries per game and third in total red zone carries, giving him an elite workload. Southern Methodist, again, has a slate-high total in what should be the highest-scoring game of the day. Jones has shown some slate-busting upside.
Anthony Jones ($7,900) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves - Jones has had 17, 16, 10, 21, and 15 carries over his past five games and averages 15.1 on the full season. Jones' team has a 29.0-point implied team total, and he should see enough scoring chances to pay off his relatively low price tag.
Others to Consider: Frankie Hickson ($8,300), Salvon Ahmed ($8,100), BJ Emmons ($7,000)
Omar Bayless ($9,900) vs. Florida International Golden Panthers - Bayless leads receivers on this slate in dominator rating, a combination of his yardage and touchdown market shares, at 44.3%. Nobody else is above 36.6%. Bayless has accounted for nearly half of the team's passing touchdowns (16 of 33), and only two other players have better than a 30.2% yardage share (Bayless is at 40.2%). He's second in the nation in receiving yards per game.
Antonio Gandy-Golden ($8,600) vs. Georgia Southern Eagles - Georgia Southern is 88th in adjusted passing yards per attempt allowed, and Gandy-Golden is second on the slate in receiving yardage share (38.2%) and just lacks the touchdown shares of the other pricey receivers. Gandy-Golden, though, is a four-point underdog and could see added volume in possible negative script, and that yardage should rack up in a good matchup.
Shemar Thornton ($7,0000) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves - Thornton is 17th among receivers in FanDuel salary at this price, but he is 6th on the slate in dominator rating (31.1%). Thornton has just 23.8% of the FIU yardage but 38.5% of the receiving touchdowns. Arkansas State is just 78th in pass defense in terms of adjusted yards per attempt.
Austin Watkins ($6,200) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers - Watkins' Blazers have a slate-low 15.25-point total, but you'll need to save salary somewhere. Watkins has accounted for a 32.4% dominator rating, fifth-best on the slate. Watkins is actually third in yardage share (37.1%), a big deviation from fourth place (30.2%). As a 16.5-point underdog, volume should be coming Watkins' way. UAB is just 119th in passing attempts per game, but refusing to air it out will simply end their season if the spread pans out.
Others to Consider: James Proche ($9,500), Kirk Merritt ($8,700), Aaron Fuller ($7,200), Kendall Parham ($5,900), John Mitchell ($5,800)