College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/29/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 43.5 Points: 5 Stars out of 5
Nebraska are averaging just over four touchdowns per game, but Iowa have one of the best scoring defenses in football, conceding only 12.2 points per game. Our models project Nebraska's team total to finish on the higher end of that discrepancy, at 23.22. That's far from a huge number, but with the listed total being in the low 40s, it could be more than enough.
On the flip side, the Nebraska defense is allowing almost 28 points per game, including 30-plus points conceded on seven occasions. Iowa has a capable offense, averaging 23.5 points per game, and they have the potential to put up a decent number against the Cornhuskers.
Our models predict 29.53 points for Iowa in this matchup, which puts our game projection almost 10 total points greater than the game total. Overall, our models give the over a 74.09% chance of hitting, making this a five-star bet for Friday.
Under 65.5 Points: 5 Stars out of 5
The over/under of 65.5 is somewhat surprising in this matchup, as neither team is particularly dominant on the offense. Eastern Michigan is averaging just shy of 30 points per game, while Kent State is averaging a shade fewer than 27 points per game.
Both teams are vulnerable defensively, with Kent State conceding 32.4 points per game and Eastern Michigan surrendering 30.1 points per game, but even so, these are not numbers that warrant such a high game total.
Our models project a combined 55.64 points in this one, which is essentially 10 points fewer than the line of 65.5. We predict a 71.52% chance of the under hitting, making this another five- star betting opportunity for Friday.
Over 53.5 total points: 5 Stars out of 5
Bowling Green has been one of the worst defensive teams in college football this season, as they are conceding an astounding 41.1 points per contest. Buffalo has been much better defensively (25.1 points conceded per contest), but even so, their defense has proven to be far from invincible.
On the offensive end, Buffalo is averaging 29.1 points per game, compared to 13.9 for Bowling Green. Buffalo will undoubtedly score points in this matchup, and our models predict they will finish with just shy of 50 points for the game. On the other side, Bowling Green may have a terrible offense, but we still project them to hit their average of around two touchdowns (15.21).
Overall we are projecting a tick more than 64 points in this game, which is more than 10 points over the installed game total. We give a 78% chance of the over hitting on Friday, which makes this a five-star bet and perhaps our best bet of the day.