College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: 10/13/18 Main Slate
Week 7 of the college football season is upon us. And after six weekends of games, we're in store for another exciting Saturday, both on the field and on the daily fantasy slate.
College football DFS? Yes, you heard that right. And in case you're unfamiliar with how it works, you can check out the rules and scoring on FanDuel, where you can hit the lobby each week to see the full array of slates and contests being offered.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle both early and main slates all the way up to the College Football Playoff. This week's main slate consists of 13 games, including a matchup between two one-loss Pac-12 teams as the Washington Huskies travel to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks.
Who should we be targeting, and why?
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama ($10,300): Fantasy sports don't have to be complicated sometimes. The Alabama Crimson Tide boast the highest implied team total (50.75) on the slate, making Tua a bit of a no-brainer. He will be matching up against the Missouri Tigers at home in Tuscaloosca, where Tagovailoa will have a chance to build on his stratospheric passing efficiency. After six weeks of play, he still ranks first in the country in quarterback rating (258.4) and yards per attempt (14.8). Heck -- he is even tied for first with a 75.2% completion percentage. Tua is a well-deserving favorite to win the Heisman as a result, and the scary thing for the rest of college football is that he might be getting even better. Notre Dame's Ian Book ($9,800) is a cheaper option you can look toward at the position. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the week with the sixth-highest implied team total on the slate (37.25). This makes sense considering they are at home against the 90th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers defense by defensive S&P+.
McKenzie Milton, UCF ($10,200): McKenzie Milton is a DFS goldmine at the position. Not only does he rank top-25 in both yards per attempt and quarterback rating, he adds in plenty of fantasy goodness with his legs. After reaching 100 carries in each of his freshman and sophomore seasons, Milton is up to 215 rushing yards and 5 scores on the ground in his junior campaign. Add in a matchup for the Central Florida Knights against the Memphis Tigers and their 83rd ranked defensive unit in the slate's highest over/under (81.0) by nearly a full touchdown, and Milton is a terrific play. A cheaper option is Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert ($9,400), who is projected to go number-one overall in Pro Football Focus' early 2019 NFL mock draft. The Ducks are short home underdogs, which should theoretically lead to plenty of volume. This is more of a contrarian play because of the Washington Huskies' strong defense, but Herbert has the talent to perform well regardless, just as Kyler Murray did against the stingy Texas Longhorns defense last week.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($9,900): That is an excellent transition to our next quarterback option, Texas' Sam Ehlinger. As mentioned, the Texas defense sprung leaks late last week in the Cotton Bowl, so Ehlinger could find himself passing more than one would initially expect given that the Longhorns are 14-point favorites in this spot. The Texas offense has the best matchup on the slate, as they get to take on a 107th-ranked Baylor Bears defense at home. If you're looking to save a little more salary, look toward the other side of the Huskies-Ducks matchup. Washington's Jake Browning ($9,300) ranks top-30 in both yards per attempt and quarterback rating, and the Ducks rank just 80th in defensive S&P+, which is explains their status as home 'dogs.
Dexter Williams, Notre Dame ($9,800): Williams leads the Fighting Irish with 339 rushing yards on an incredible 8.9 yards per carry clip. On the slate, only the Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes are favored by more than Notre Dame, who Vegas projects to win by exactly three touchdowns. As mentioned before, Pitt is just 90th in defensive S&P+ through six weeks, so this is an eruption spot for Notre Dame's most explosive running back. For a significantly cheaper option, you can look toward Crimson Tide running back Najee Harris ($7,600). Despite a solid game last week by teammate Damien Harris, it is still Najee Harris who leads the team in carries, rushing yards, and rushing scores. Yet he is the cheaper option on this slate as he gets to feast with the Tide nearly 30-point favorites.
Adrian Killins Jr., UCF ($9,500): We want our running backs attached to good offenses. Led by the aforementioned McKenzie Milton, UCF is just that, as they currently are ninth in offensive S&P+. Killins is the workhorse for this talented UCF team, as his 65 carries this year are more than double that of the next non-quarterback on the team. He is a dual-threat back as well, as he's got 189 receiving yards to his name, so he won't be hurt much if UCF does fall behind. Playing in the game with the slate's highest over/under, Killins is virtually an auto-play. But if you're not convinced, you can use the Longhorns' Keaontay Ingram ($7,800). We discussed with Ehlinger how the Longhorns have the slate's best matchup by far as they face the 107th-ranked Baylor defense at home. Well, Ingram leads Longhorn running backs in yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and receptions as he has continued to prove his all-around ability throughout the course of the season. In a golden matchup, Ingram is a nice value play.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama ($9,500): With Tua performing as well as he is, it's hard to get away from Jeudy. Why try to force it? After all, Jeudy is a big-play threat; he ranks fourth in the nation with 24.3 yards per reception. He is also tied for second in the nation with eight receiving touchdowns. With Tua expected to have another good performance at home, using his top wide receiver is a solid play. If you're looking for some salary relief, you can look at Kalijah Lipscomb ($8,600) of Vanderbilt. Lipscomb ranks 10th in the country with a 30.4% target share, and he's demonstrated an ability to find the end zone, as he's hit pay-dirt six times to date this season.
Deebo Samuel, South Carolina ($8,800): Samuel is a true alpha receiver, but he's priced below $9,000, making this a buy spot. The wideout ranks top-25 in the country with a 27.27% target share, and he is also top-30 with a 6.95% red zone target share. In a South Carolina/Texas A&M game with a mediocre 52.5 total, Samuel is sure to go overlooked, but you are better off chasing his high floor and respectable ceiling thanks to the enormous volume he receives. Wisconsin's A.J. Taylor ($8,300) is a nice contrarian option. Like Samuel, he is a genuine number-one receiver and boasts a tremendous 26.45% target share. The next-highest mark on the team is just 18.18%. Because Wisconsin has been so good this season, that dominant target share hasn't translated to eye-popping production thus far. But with Wisconsin traveling to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines, they should need to do more through the air, thereby boosting Taylor's potential.
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota ($8,700): No one can or will argue that this is a good matchup for the Minnesota Golden Gophers' passing offense. However, we still want to emphasize targets with wide receivers, and no one is seeing a higher percentage of their team's passing attempts than Johnson. Yes, you read that right; you can get the country's target share leader (35.85%) at under $9,000. But if you're looking for an even more discounted wide receiver to open up salary elsewhere, look no further than Notre Dame's Chase Claypool ($7,100). Claypool's most attractive feature is his volume, as he's received 17.46% of the Fighting Irish's targets. As the second-highest target hog on an undefeated team, Claypool is worth a dart throw at such a cheap price, especially with the nice matchup in South Bend.
Akash Bhatia is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Akash Bhatia also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username tenswimrun1. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.