March Madness Betting Guide: Second Round, Saturday

The NCAA tournament rolls on with the second round getting underway at 12:10 pm ET on Saturday.

Filling out a bracket is the main attraction for most sports fans this time of year, but the fun doesn't have to stop there. It's also the perfect opportunity to place some bets at NCAAB odds.

Which games should draw our attention? Let's find out.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Furman (13) vs. San Diego State (5)

San Diego State -5.5 (-120)

The Furman Paladins produced one of the first shockers of the tournament by knocking off 4 seed Virginia, but their Cinderella run could be short-lived. Virginia was arguably the most overrated seed in the entire tournament, and this could be a step up in competition against the San Diego State Aztecs.

The Aztecs hail from a Mountain West Conference that hasn't exactly impressed so far after seeing Utah State, Boise State, and Nevada all go down before the second round. However, those three teams were all double-digit seeds, and San Diego State is the best the conference has to offer.

KenPom views San Diego State as a top-15 team, and BartTorvik is even higher on them, ranking them 11th. The Aztecs' main strength is defense, entering the day ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per BartTorvik. While they aren't quite as potent offensively, they're still well above average in adjusted offense, too (53rd).

The Paladins are actually the slightly better adjusted offense (33rd), but their defense leaves a lot to be desired at 179th. They'll also have a disadvantage on the boards, ranking outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.

In all, Furman is one of the weakest teams left in the bracket, ranking 90th or worse on KenPom and BartTorvik. Really, were it not for Virginia's disastrous turnover in the final seconds on Thursday, we probably aren't talking about Furman today.

San Diego State is clearly the superior team, and they aren't getting enough respect at this line. BartTorvik projects them to win by closer to double digits (9.1 points), easily clearing this number.

Duke (5) vs. Tennessee (4)

Tennessee +3.5 (-115)
Tennessee ML (+130)

A 4/5 matchup with a tight spread wouldn't normally jump off the page -- except the wrong team might be favored here.

According to KenPom and BartTorvik, the Tennessee Volunteers are one of the very best teams in college basketball this season, earning a top-six ranking on both sites. They boast the top adjusted defense in the country, per BartTorvik, and if it wasn't for their non-elite adjusted offense (54th) -- in addition to a season-ending ACL injury to team assist leader Zakai Zeigler -- they would arguably be among the top title contenders.

While the Volunteers were inconsistent down the stretch, winning just 6 of their last 13 games, this span also included wins over ranked opponents in Alabama, Texas, and Auburn. The Crimson Tide are the top overall seed of the tournament while the Longhorns are the country's seventh-best team, per KenPom and BartTorvik. This team can beat anyone -- as long as their offense doesn't let them down.

This isn't to discount a dangerous Duke Blue Devils team that's trending upward, though, as the ACC champions have now won 10 straight after comfortably dispatching Oral Roberts in the first round. However, their overall resume is that of a roughly top-20 team, per KenPom and BartTorvik, and they enter Saturday ranked a solid if unspectacular 36th in adjusted offense and 15th in adjusted defense.

Tennessee's recent struggles and Duke's win streak likely explain the betting line, and I can certainly understand some hesitation in backing the Volunteers. However, this could also be a "buy low" opportunity on one of the best overall teams in the country.

Our model projects Tennessee +3.5 to hit 61.0% of the time, and while it views this as close to a pick 'em, it also expects them to win straight up over half the time. This makes the Volunteers moneyline line also intriguing at +130, as that price implies just 43.5% win odds.