March Madness: Projected DraftKings Fantasy Points By Team for Thursday's Games
Yesterday I showed how to use Vegas lines to project fantasy points. In short, we calculate a team's Fantasy Points per Actual Point (FP/Pt) and then multiply it by the amount of points Vegas projects a team to score. That gives us a projection, courtesy of Vegas, of how many fantasy points each team will score.
From there, we can even calculate percentage of a team's fantasy points each player scores to get a player projection. In fact, later this afternoon I'll be doing just that, giving the best value plays for Thursday's games.
This data is useful, as it can help guide your decisions of which teams to focus on. Arkansas is projected to score more actual points (71.75) than Baylor (68.25), but in terms of DraftKings fantasy points, they're projected to score fewer -- 138.20 versus 141.33.
It may not seem like a big difference, but in large tournament GPPs, a couple points can go a long way. Further, most players will select which teams to focus on based on Vegas projected actual points. That means players from a team like Arkansas will possibly be higher owned than players from Baylor.
Here's the table from Thursday's games. Check out the site tomorrow morning for projected team fantasy points for Friday's contests.
|Team||Vegas Proj Pts||FP/Pt||Veg Proj FP|
|North Carolina St||71.25||1.9665||140.11|
|Stephen F. Austin||62.50||1.9316||120.73|