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NCAA Tournament Odds: Final Four Update

As quickly as it approaches our calendar every year, March Madness has nearly come and gone.

With four teams left alive, though, the Big Dance is not yet in our rearview mirror completely. The Michigan State Spartans and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will battle it out for a chance to face either the Virginia Cavaliers or Auburn Tigers for a national title.

With our algorithm up to date, here's the latest on how it views the final three games of the NCAA season.

Auburn vs. Virginia

According to our algorithm, the Cavaliers are 67.1% likely to win and to stop the Tigers' shy of a national championship appearance. Despite Virginia's stifling defense (fifth in the nation in's adjusted offensive efficiency metrics), they're actually second on the offensive end in terms of adjusted points per possession. Auburn? They're fifth offensively. The Tigers sit 38th on defense, and that discrepancy is a key reason why UVA is fairly heavily favored to play for the national title.

Texas Tech vs. Michigan State

This game grades out a bit closer but still has a clear favorite: Michigan State. Our algorithm sees them 62.3% likely to best the Red Raiders and reach the national title game. The Spartans grade out top-eight in adjusted offense and defense. Texas Tech is a bit more lopsided, sitting 30th in offense but first in the entire nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They actually allow a full 2.1 points fewer per 100 possessions than any other team in the nation. Don't sleep on Texas Tech, who leads all teams in point differential in the 2018-19 tournament.

Who's Going to Win It All?

Accounting for Final Four odds as well as the probability of knocking off an impending opponent in the title game, there is one team with an edge.

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