NCAAB

NCAA Tournament: Which Teams Could Be Seeded Too High on Selection Sunday?

Sal Cacciatore  —  @SCacc8 Feb 17th, 2018
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Miami Hurricanes

nF Rating: 39

nF Projected Seed: 8

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 7

Like Providence, Miami is a team whose record does not align with its underlying metrics because of strong performances in close games.

The Hurricanes are 18-7 overall, including 6-1 in games decided by two baskets or fewer, which has helped them move to 27th in the RPI. Rankings that factor in margin of victory -- and are thus more predictive than the RPI -- are lower on them as the 'Canes are 38th at KenPom and 44th in terms of Sports-Reference.com’s SRS.

Many of Miami’s wins against quality teams have been narrow victories -- five of their six wins against KenPom's top-100 teams have come by six points or fewer -- while its average margin of defeat is 8.0 points.

This kind of formula doesn't usually lend itself toward lasting success.

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