March Madness: Previewing Sunday’s Elite 8 Matchups
Kentucky (2) vs. North Carolina (1)
Two college basketball titans will face off Sunday afternoon. Kentucky and North Carolina are two of the most prestigious programs in NCAA history, and they are two of the best teams in the land this season, with both sitting in the top four of our metrics-generated power rankings.
Kentucky is filled with young and talented prospects destined for the NBA, while North Carolina is built around seasoned veterans who have been here before.
Both teams found themselves in control of their Sweet 16 games, with each squad notching a double-digit win.
As is the case every time someone faces North Carolina, the battle for rebounds will prove to be crucial. The Tar Heels are the best rebounding team in the country, and that has propelled them into the Elite 8. Kentucky grabs 53.5% of rebounds, which is stellar but somehow more than 5% less than North Carolina's mark.
The spread for this game is 2.5 points in favor of the Heels, and our metrics agree that it'll be a very close game. We give North Carolina a 52% chance to win.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
| Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | UNC | 18.1 | 4.6 | 0.534 |
| Joel Berry | UNC | 14.8 | 3.3 | 0.566 |
| Kennedy Meeks | UNC | 12.6 | 9.1 | 0.542 |
| Malik Monk | Kentucky | 20.4 | 2.5 | 0.550 |
| De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | 16.1 | 4.1 | 0.494 |
| Edrice Adebayo | Kentucky | 13.3 | 7.8 | 0.614 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
| School | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp eFG% | Opp TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 UNC | 19.38 | 117.0 | 52.4 | 58.8 | 13.5 | 96.7 | 48.3 | 16.9 |
| #2 UK | 19.43 | 113.8 | 53.0 | 53.5 | 13.6 | 95.2 | 47.1 | 16.8 |
