Top Prop Bets for Heat/Pacers Game 7
- written by
on Jun 3rd, 2013
Game 7. This is the part where we signal the Apocalypse if Indiana actually pulls this off, right?
Heading into the series, we gave the Pacers a 24.78 percent chance of taking down Miami, and we had 55.8 percent odds that Miami would take the series in four, five, or six games. Obviously, Roy Hibbert and Paul George had other ideas. I'll just assume that Hibbert hates math about as much as he likes homophobic jokes.
Unfortunately, as much as it pains me to say, I can't give you complete odds for tonight's game. For specific game win odds, over/under, and moneyline, you'll need to consult our numberFire Premium Product. (Not-really-spoiler alert: Miami's favored for a reason.)
That doesn't mean, though, that we don't have any numbers available for tonight's game. On the contrary, there are a ton of fun props and championship odds that you should know heading into tonight's game.
Top Prop Bets
All lines are taken from our friends at Topbet.eu.
Roy Hibbert Over/Under 20.5 Points - Under (Even)
This isn't just a grain of salt, but rather an entire five packets: our projections are based off an entire season's body of work. That's why his 15.8 projected points and 76.1 percent chance of being under may seem off. Yes, I know Hibbert has absolutely destroyed the Heat inside. Yes, I know that his usage rate has topped 23 percent in every game this series after sitting at a 22.5 percent average during the regular season. But assuming that regression to the mean should happen eventually, Hibbert did only shoot a .449 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) during the regular season. He also didn't top .400 eFG% in two of his three regular season games against the Heat.
Paul George Over/Under 20 Points - Under (+110)
We project George with 19.1 points tonight, which puts him right near that 20 point barrier. But given his consistent numbers, we feel somewhat strongly, at 55.7 percent odds, that George will indeed be under tonight. It's not overwhelming by any stretch of the imagination, but it also doesn't have the variability that Hibbert's numbers possess.
LeBron James Over/Under 30 Points - Under (-105)
It's close. Our odds give LeBron James a 54.26 percent chance at being under 30 points tonight, while the Vegas line sees the odds at 51.22 percent. Do you place enough faith in that three percent difference to actually make the bet? Perhaps, and it may help ease your mind that LeBron has only scored over 30 once this entire series.
Dwyane Wade Over/Under 16 Points - Over (-115)
OK, time for more salt. Once again, these projections are based on a full season, and Dwyane Wade has looked about healthy as Robb Stark's baby boy. (If you're worried about spoilers, I'd be shocked if numberFire got to you first.) But with that said, a fully healthy Wade would have an 85.07 percent chance at scoring over 16 points tonight. His playoff 23.1 percent usage rate isn't too far off his 29.5 percent regular season rate, and while his .451 eFG% and 101 offensive rating during these playoffs hurt, I'm not sold that those constitute a 30 percent odds difference.
Remaining Team Championship Odds
|Championship Odds||Current Futures Bet|
|San Antonio Spurs||39.4%||+130|
If you're looking to place a bet on the champion, none of these teams should really be up your alley. However, the Spurs aren't the total underdogs that they seemed to be even before Heat/Pacers Game 6. The Spurs aren't quite at Topdog's +130 levels (a 43.5 percent chance), but they're currently only four percent under.
After spending much of the past two rounds above a 50 percent chance at winning it all, the smart money would now be on The Field rather than the Heat. I guess that's what happens when you're faced with a do-or-die Game 7 against a team that has had your number much of the series.
For Spurs fans, it should be obvious at this point, but rooting for Indiana is your best bet. As I explored last week, San Antonio's potential win chances would increase by about 30 percent tonight if the Pacers were to pull off the upset. Especially given the Spurs' utter domination of a similar team in Memphis, the Spurs' championship odds have the potential to skyrocket.