Finding Daily Fantasy Basketball Matchups That Fit: Pick and Roll
A big key to success in daily fantasy sports is finding exploitable matchups when targeting players. At this point, daily fantasy sports are so mainstream that almost everyone constructing rosters takes matchups into account. Regardless of which site you prefer, the average daily fantasy player is going to be equipped with a Defense vs. Position Chart (or DvP) of some sort to help their research process.
To maintain consistent success, you need to be one step ahead of the average player, though. DvP can definitely offer some insight into finding advantageous matchups, but it can also be misleading. To put it simply, not all players are the same. Ryan Anderson and Derrick Favors possess completely different skill sets, and therefore thrive in different situations. DvP would depict a matchup against a team that struggles to defend stretch-fours as equally beneficial for Favors as Anderson, when clearly it is not.
So, instead of blindly plugging players in when they draw a matchup with green numbers against their position on the DvP chart, let’s examine how team defenses defend against certain skills.
In this series, I will take you through and examine how to find matchups that fit players’ skill sets, rather than their position. I’ll use analytics to provide a more accurate look at the types of players teams struggle to defend, and then examine how players who fit that mold have fared against them.
The first skill we looked at was how certain players and teams performed in and against transition.
Next, we’re going to examine which players have been the most effective in the pick and roll and how teams have defended against the pick and roll.
The Best Matchups for Pick and Roll Ball Handlers
The teams are listed in order, followed by their league rank in terms of points allowed (PA), points per possession allowed (PPP), and Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) allowed.
The formula for the ranking is as follows, with total points allowed and eFG% slightly weighted: [Rank (Total Pts allowed * 1.5) + Rank (PPP) + Rank (eFG%) * 1.5] / 3 = Score
Minnesota Timberwolves -- PA (4th), PPP (2nd), eFG% (7th)
Detroit Pistons -- PA (1st), PPP (8th), eFG% (10th)
Brooklyn Nets -- PA (14th), PPP (1st), eFG% (1st)
Memphis Grizzlies -- PA (12th), PPP (3rd), eFG% (2nd)
New Orleans Pelicans -- PA (10th), PPP (4th), eFG% (4th)
Portland Trail Blazers -- PA (3rd), PPP (5th), eFG% (13th)
Sacramento Kings -- PA (9th), PPP (6th), eFG% (5th)
Phoenix Suns -- PA (5th), PPP (9th), eFG% (9th)
Golden State Warriors -- PA (2nd), PPP (11th), eFG% (15th)
New Yorks Knicks -- PA (6th), PPP (10th), eFG% (19th)
Denver Nuggets -- PA (22nd), PPP (7th), eFG% (3rd)
The biggest thing to note from this list is that there are a few teams who have defended guards very well this season, which will scare the average daily fantasy player off because the DvP chart displays it as a negative matchup. Here are the teams who have defended point guard or shooting guard well this season but struggle to defend the pick and roll:
The teams are listed followed by their DvP rank against points guards (PG) and shooting guards (SG).
Memphis Grizzlies -- PG (8th), SG (3rd)
Detroit Pistons -- PG (10th), SG (11th)
Golden State Warriors -- SG, (9th)
Targeting these teams with players who thrive in the pick and roll gives yourself a nice edge in tournaments, as most will not look further than the DvP chart.
The Most Effective Pick and Roll Ball Handlers
To begin, let’s examine which guards have been the most effective out of the pick and roll this season. These numbers are up-to-date as of March 6, and are subject to change as the season goes on. If you’re curious, the most recent data can be found here.
The tables will show each player's points per possession (PPP) in the pick and roll and their total pick and roll points (Pts). I also went through and tracked how each player performed against the best matchups for pick and roll ball handlers. The table displays the player's average FanDuel points (P&R Ave) in games against the teams just mentioned, as well as how their average in those matchups compared to all other games (P&R +/-).
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | P&R Ave | P&R +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | 60 | 0.89 | 610 | 33.7 | 2.5 |
| Damian Lillard | 56 | 0.97 | 592 | 42.3 | 1.8 |
| Chris Paul | 55 | 0.94 | 543 | 39.6 | -1.3 |
| Kemba Walker | 60 | 0.88 | 518 | 36.0 | 0.1 |
| Russell Westbrook | 62 | 0.86 | 487 | 50.5 | 1.1 |
| Stephen Curry | 57 | 1.15 | 426 | 48.6 | 0.6 |
| John Wall | 61 | 0.72 | 403 | 42.0 | 0.2 |
| Kyle Lowry | 59 | 0.90 | 380 | 41.0 | 1.5 |
| Derrick Rose | 50 | 0.82 | 368 | 29.5 | 2.5 |
| Isaiah Thomas | 63 | 0.82 | 361 | 38.7 | 3.6 |
| Tony Parker | 56 | 0.94 | 342 | 25.1 | 1.6 |
The first thing to take note of is the ridiculous 610 points Reggie Jackson has scored as a pick and roll ball handler. 52.5 percent of Jackson's total points this season have come out of the pick and roll, making him the only player with over 50 percent of his points coming out of the pick and roll. He has predictably dominated when matched up with teams that struggle to defend the pick and roll, averaging 33.7 FanDuel points. Most recently, Jackson went for 30 points and 9 assists last night against Portland.
The next player that jumps off the page is Isaiah Thomas, who has averaged an absurd 3.6 point boost to his FanDuel average in games against teams that struggle to defend the pick and roll. Most recently, Thomas put it on the Knicks for 51.6 FanDuel points. On the season, he has averaged 44.5 FanDuel points against New York, which just goes to show how effective of a scorer he is when Boston is in a matchup in which they'll more heavily utilize the pick and roll.
Of the 11 point guards studied, only one did not exceed expectations when he drew one of these favorable matchups, which is a pretty common theme throughout the other positions studied. In fact, only seven of 47 players that were studied did not exceed expectations in favorable pick and roll matchups, displaying the weight this research carries.
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | P&R Ave | P&R +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum | 61 | 0.92 | 459 | 33.0 | 1.1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 60 | 0.99 | 441 | 37.5 | 2.6 |
| James Harden | 61 | 0.98 | 416 | 48.2 | 1.4 |
| Louis Williams | 58 | 0.99 | 377 | 24.2 | 1.0 |
| Dwyane Wade | 57 | 0.85 | 368 | 33.6 | 2.2 |
| Monta Ellis | 62 | 0.81 | 331 | 28.2 | 1.1 |
| Jimmy Butler | 48 | 0.89 | 285 | 36.7 | -1.0 |
| Rodney Hood | 59 | 0.89 | 244 | 24.3 | 0.7 |
| Will Barton | 62 | 0.90 | 209 | 29.2 | 1.8 |
| Bradley Beal | 40 | 0.83 | 173 | 29.0 | 2.5 |
| Eric Gordon | 44 | 0.95 | 170 | 25.6 | 2.8 |
Of the 11 most efficient scoring shooting guards in the pick and roll, only Jimmy Butler didn't exceed expectations, and he still put up 36.7 FanDuel points per game in favorable matchups!
C.J. McCollum and DeMar DeRozan are ranked fifth and sixth among all players in pick and roll points as the ball handler, which is very impressive considering they both play with ball-dominant point guards. It would appear that pairing either shooting guard with their point guard in these advantageous matchups isn't an overly negative correlation play either, as most would assume. Kyle Lowry and DeRozan were able to combine for at least 80 FanDuel points in 10 of the 19 games they played together in the previously specified matchups, with three games of 90-plus. Damian Lillard and McCollum also have been an effective pairing, combining for 80-plus FanDuel points in seven of the 21 games they played together, with three games of 90-plus and one of over 100.
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | P&R Ave | P&R +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 58 | 0.87 | 293 | 39.9 | -4.4 |
| Paul George | 62 | 0.84 | 269 | 35.1 | -3.8 |
| Kevin Durant | 55 | 0.91 | 252 | 48.5 | 2.8 |
| Gordon Hayward | 62 | 0.81 | 249 | 32.0 | 0.1 |
| Nicolas Batum | 52 | 0.77 | 140 | 32.0 | 2.0 |
Small forward was easily the position that was impacted the least by advantageous matchups when it came to the pick and roll, which isn't overly surprising considering they don't use the play nearly as much as the other positions.
5 Names That Will Surprise You
So, we know the players who have been effective while executing the pick and roll this season. Not everyone is able to create scoring opportunities out of the pick and roll though. Here are five players who have been surprisingly inefficient while handling the ball in the pick and roll this season.
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | eFG% | eFG% (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Mudiay | 48 | 0.59 | 215 | 36.4 | -1.6 |
| Elfrid Payton | 57 | 0.68 | 171 | 38.8 | -7.2 |
| Ish Smith | 56 | 0.69 | 279 | 36.6 | -6.8 |
| Ricky Rubio | 56 | 0.70 | 196 | 35.8 | -5.7 |
| Brandon Knight | 42 | 0.71 | 273 | 40.0 | -8.4 |
None of these players are overly efficient scorers, with the exception of Brandon Knight, but the fact that all of them have posted eFG% numbers under 40-percent is pretty eye-opening.
The Best Matchups for Pick and Roll Roll-Men
The teams are listed in order, followed by their league rank in terms of points allowed (PA), points per possession allowed (PPP), and Effective Field Goal Percentage allowed (eFG%).
The formula for the ranking is as follows, with total points allowed and eFG% slightly weighted: [Rank (Total Pts allowed * 1.5) + Rank (PPP) + Rank (eFG%) * 1.5] / 3 = Score
Indiana Pacers -- PA (5th), PPP (8th), eFG% (5th)
Minnesota Timberwolves -- PA (7th), PPP (6th), eFG% (6th)
Denver Nuggets -- PA (14th), PPP (2nd), eFG% (1st)
Portland Trail Blazers -- PA (6th), PPP (4th), eFG% (12th)
Philadelphia 76ers -- PA (9th), PPP (3rd), eFG% (9th)
Brooklyn Nets -- PA (4th), PPP (13th), eFG% (8th)
Toronto Raptors -- PA (17th), PPP (1st), eFG% (2nd)
Golden State Warriors -- PA (16th), PPP (5th), eFG% (3rd)
Detroit Pistons -- PA (1st), PPP (16th), eFG% (17th)
New Orleans Pelicans -- PA (2nd), PPP (19th), eFG% (15th)
Here are the teams who have defended power forward or center well this season, but struggle to defend the pick and roll:
The teams are listed followed by their DvP rank against power forwards (PF) and centers (C).
Minnesota Timberwolves -- PF (9th) C (7th)
Detroit Pistons -- PF (13th) C (9th)
Indiana Pacers -- PF (12th) C (13th)
Toronto Raptors -- PF (3rd)
Again, targeting these teams with players who thrive in the pick and roll gives yourself a nice edge in tournaments, as most will not look further than the DvP chart.
The Most Effective Pick and Roll Roll-Men
To begin, let’s examine which big men have been the most effective out of the pick and roll this season. These numbers are up-to-date as of March 6, and are subject to change as the season goes on. If you’re curious, the most recent data can be found here.
The tables will show each player's points per possession in the pick and roll, their total pick and roll points, and their Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) in the pick and roll. I also went through and tracked how each player performed against the best matchups for pick and roll roll-men. The table displays the player's average (FanDuel points) in games against the teams just mentioned, as well as how their average in those matchups compared to all other games (P&R +/-).
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | eFG% | P&R Ave | P&R +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 53 | 1.08 | 320 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 4.8 |
| Chris Bosh | 53 | 1.11 | 260 | 54.1 | 34.0 | 1.3 |
| Serge Ibaka | 62 | 0.95 | 232 | 49.3 | 26.7 | 0.7 |
| Paul Millsap | 61 | 1.00 | 200 | 50.6 | 34.6 | -2.3 |
| Ryan Anderson | 58 | 1.12 | 173 | 54.8 | 27.5 | 1.2 |
| Derrick Favors | 44 | 1.04 | 170 | 53.5 | 35.9 | 2.8 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 56 | 1.00 | 168 | 49.0 | 31.8 | 2.1 |
| Thaddeus Young | 62 | 1.01 | 167 | 54.9 | 30.5 | -0.3 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 62 | 1.08 | 146 | 59.5 | 27.8 | 1.3 |
| Kenneth Faried | 54 | 1.11 | 120 | 60.7 | 28.2 | 1.8 |
Anthony Davis easily leads all big men in points scored as the roll-man, which should make it no surprise that he has averaged nearly 50 FanDuel points in games he has been healthy enough to play against teams who struggle to defend the pick and roll.
Derrick Favors has been one of the most productive power forwards in the pick and roll, averaging nearly three points more in matchups that fit than in other games. Most recently, Favors showcased his ability to the tune of 56.7 FanDuel points against the Pelicans, who have allowed the second most points to roll-men this season.
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | eFG% | P&R Ave | P&R +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brook Lopez | 62 | 1.01 | 284 | 50.4 | 39.0 | 3.0 |
| Al Horford | 62 | 1.14 | 254 | 57.3 | 31.4 | -0.9 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 62 | 0.92 | 237 | 46.2 | 36.2 | 1.4 |
| Marc Gasol | 52 | 1.09 | 225 | 53.7 | 35.8 | 2.9 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 51 | 1.01 | 212 | 50.0 | 49.3 | 2.0 |
| Marcin Gortat | 55 | 1.19 | 208 | 60.0 | 32.2 | 1.5 |
| Pau Gasol | 57 | 0.94 | 207 | 46.6 | 40.3 | 1.4 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 53 | 1.37 | 172 | 75.7 | 40.6 | 6.1 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 58 | 1.41 | 169 | 81.1 | 35.8 | 1.0 |
| Andre Drummond | 61 | 1.10 | 161 | 63.2 | 42.4 | 2.0 |
Brook Lopez and Al Horford have both been extremely potent as the roll-men, each topping 250 points, one point per possession, and an eFG% of over 50 percent.
While the voluminous totals Lopez and Horford have put up are impressive, what blew me away was the efficiency Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan have maintained as the roll-man this season. They easily lead all posts in points per possession, and both have an eFG% of over 75 percent. Whiteside also has benefited more from matchups that fit than any player in this article, averaging an absurd 6.1 more FanDuel points per game in said matchups.
5 Names That Will Surprise You
So, we know the players who have been effective while executing the pick and roll this season. Not everyone is able to capitalize on their scoring opportunities out of the pick and roll though. Here are five players who have been surprisingly inefficient while operating as the roll-man in the pick and roll this season.
| Name | Games | PPP | Pts | eFG% | eFG% +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 62 | 0.76 | 58 | 38.1 | -5.2 |
| Myles Turner | 39 | 0.81 | 89 | 39.6 | -11.8 |
| Jared Sullinger | 62 | 0.88 | 120 | 45.6 | -0.1 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 57 | 0.88 | 167 | 44.8 | -5.3 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 58 | 0.89 | 168 | 47.0 | -2.8 |
Going forward, don’t just blindly plug players in according to the DvP charts. That’s what everyone is doing. Use these defensive profiles to find matchups that fit the players to give yourself an edge.
The numbers don't lie. 86.4 percent of the 22 most effective guards exceeded expectations while in a matchup that fit. 85 percent of the 20 most effective posts exceeded expectations while in a matchup that fit. Obviously, you can't just plug in a player featured in this article when they play against a team featured and expect it to win 85 percent of the time.
Some of these players are dependent on injuries or other circumstances to be productive. The matchups that fit are a better indicator of success than DvP, though, and will be used far less frequently. Take advantage!
Part three of the "Finding Matchups That Fit" series will focus on players who excel in the post and which teams to target them against.
