5 Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays for 2/25/16
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you'll need to find one of these lower-priced options to squeeze everyone into your lineup.
Let's take a look at five guys who can help fill the gaps in your lineup tonight. Of course, remember to check our projections closer to tip because so much can change in the NBA throughout the day.
Jabari Parker, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Price: $5,600
Jabari Parker is really playing well right now, averaging 37.1 FanDuel points in 42.5 minutes per game over his past four contests. Parker has clearly benefited from the move of Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams to the bench -- check out his splits in the five games without Monroe and Carter-Williams in the starting lineup, per NBAwowy.com.
|Jabari Parker||Usage Rate||Field Goal %||Rebound Rate||FanDuel points/possession||FanDuel Points/Game|
|Last Five Games||22.5%||51.3%||12.3%||0.85||33.2|
|All Other Games||19.1%||48.4%||9.1%||0.70||20.2|
He has an excellent opportunity to continue his recent hot streak tonight, as he draws a terrific matchup with the Celtics. Boston has allowed the fifth most points to opposing power forwards this season, which isn't surprising when you take a deeper look at some of their defensive metrics.
The Celtics rank 20th in Rebounding Rate on the year, and really struggle to keep opposing teams off the offensive glass, as evidenced by their 25th rank in Defensive Rebounding Rate. As a result, they have allowed the third most points on put-backs this season. Boston also has struggled to defend opposing post players, with the third most points allowed in the post.
Expect Parker to be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight, and rightfully so -- the upside he offers at this price is hard to find.
Evan Fournier, SG, Orlando Magic
FanDuel Price: $5,500
It's hard for me to ever recommend a Magic player with the way Scott Skiles runs his rotations, but Evan Fournier appears to find himself on Skiles' good side heading into tonight's game. Over Fournier's last six games, he's averaged 41 minutes per game and has reached 42 minutes in all but one of them. Fournier has put those minutes to good use, averaging 30.8 FanDuel points per game. He's displayed remarkable consistency lately, too, with seven straight games of over 27 FanDuel points.
A big reason for Fournier's recent spike in production is the departure of Tobias Harris. Per NBAwowy.com, Fournier has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute without Harris on the floor, as opposed to 0.70 while sharing the court with Harris.
The Magic find themselves in a big pace-up game tonight, as Golden State plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA. Their game is projected to be played at the fastest pace on the slate, and consequently the over/under is set at 222 points, also the highest on the slate.
While all of the Orlando players deserve a boost in this up-tempo, high-scoring affair, none do more than Fournier. Fournier has easily been Orlando's most effective player in transition, leading the team in scoring and sporting a scorching hot 73.1% Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) in transition. Among NBA players with at least 75 transition field goal attempts, Fournier's eFG% is the highest, and his points per possession ranks third. Golden State has allowed the fifth most points in transition, the 10th most transition points per possession, and the 10th highest field goal percentage in transition.
Enes Kanter, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
FanDuel Price: $5,200
Enes Kanter is an unpredictable player from game to game, but he has huge upside for a player at this price-range, and a matchup with the Pelicans may be exactly what he needs to reach that potential.
Kanter sees limited minutes due to his well-documented struggles on the defensive side of the ball -- he's dead last among centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus. The Pelicans will throw Alexis Ajinca and Kendrick Perkins out there at center tonight, a deadly duo that has combined to average 7.01 points per game. Needless to say, the defensive effort of Steven Adams may not be required tonight, and Billy Donovan may end up rolling with Kanter for more than the 20.4 minutes he's averaged on the season.
In two meetings with New Orleans this season, Donovan has done just that -- playing Kanter 29 minutes per game, and Adams just 15 minutes per game. Kanter turned those extra minutes into 33.85 FanDuel points per game against New Orleans, and he could put up a similar number tonight.
Kanter makes his living on the offensive glass, ranking second in the NBA in put-back points. The Pelicans have allowed the seventh most points per possession on put-backs. They've also struggled to defend the post, with the eighth most points allowed in the post. In addition to their defensive struggles, they are ranked 23rd in Rebounding Rate on the season.
Omer Asik will miss tonight's game, and the Pelicans have been even worse on the glass with him out of the lineup this season. Per NBAwowy.com, the Pelicans Rebounding Rate without Asik in the lineup is 48.1%, which would rank 27th among NBA teams. Expect Kanter, who boasts the NBA's fifth best Rebounding Rate, to dominate the glass tonight -- as he did when he piled up 26 boards in the first two meetings with New Orleans.
Maurice Harkless, SF, Portland Trail Blazers
FanDuel Price: $4,400
Maurice Harkless's production has been all over the map lately -- most recently a 9.7 point dud against Brooklyn. Many daily fantasy players blindly chased Harkless in that game and were disappointed, so his ownership should be lower tonight.
When considering rostering Harkless, you have to take into account the context of the game. Assuming there aren't injuries, he's only going to get heavy run in up-tempo games against teams that play small ball, like the Houston Rockets.
Vegas has Portland projected to outscore their season average by 9.8 points tonight, in a game tied for the highest over/under on the slate, so this game perfectly fits the mold of a game Harkless could get heavy run in. If Portland decides to start Harkless to match Houston's small ball lineup, as they have in their past two matchups with Houston, he becomes one of the best value plays on the entire slate.
This will be the fourth matchup between Portland and Houston this season, but in the first game, Houston hadn't yet implemented their small ball lineup with Trevor Ariza at power forward, so let's instead look at how Harkless performed in the two most recent games. In those two contests, Harkless played 29 minutes per game, shot 58.3% from the field, and averaged 34.4 FanDuel points per game.
It should come as no surprise that Harkless was so productive in those up-tempo games, as he has been very effective in transition all season. Harkless leads the team in transition points per possession, and has shot a ridiculous 69.2% from the field in transition. The Rockets have allowed the fifth most points in transition and the fourth highest transition eFG%.
Mirza Teletovic, PF, Phoenix
FanDuel Price: $4,200
In three games following the Markieff Morris trade, Mirza Teletovic has averaged 26 FanDuel points in 28.7 minutes per game, and he may be in store for more tonight. The Suns could be left very shorthanded in the frontcourt if Alex Len is unable to go.
In addition to an expanded role, Teletovic finds himself in a revenge game against his former team tonight. Even without the revenge narrative, this would be a great matchup for Teletovic, as Brooklyn is ranked 28th in Defensive Efficiency and has given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
Teletovic's specialty is as a spot-up shooter, specifically from behind the arc. He has scored 239 points as a spot-up shooter this season, which is the ninth most in the NBA and accounts for 41.8% of his total points. Teletovic also has an eFG% of 62.2% as a spot-up shooter, which is fifth among shooters with at least 150 spot-up attempts. The Nets have allowed the sixth most points to opposing spot up shooters this season, and they've given up the fifth most made three pointers this season.