3 Daily Fantasy Basketball Players to Avoid on 2/3/16
You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include in your DFS NBA lineups tonight, but what about some guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?
Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets each night. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup.
With a huge slate of NBA games on tonight, searching for the landmines could mean the difference from winning or losing your contests.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
FanDuel Price: $6,700
DraftKings Price: $6,500
Ricky Rubio was nothing short of fantastic last night against the Lakers, but when it comes to matchups for point guards, the Lakers tend to give up a bunch of points. Now, he has another game in Staples Center tonight against Chris Paul and the Clippers, a much tougher matchup, especially on no rest.
While not having to travel after last night’s game is a plus, there aren’t too many other factors making Rubio a solid play tonight. The Clippers own the fourth best defense versus points guards this season, and on top of that, Rubio has not been great recently when playing on no rest.
In his last four games playing on the second night of a back-to-back, Rubio is averaging only six points, nine assists and five turnovers per game. That adds up to only 25 FanDuel points per game in his last four back-to-backs, which is far less than you need to hit value with Rubio tonight.
On top of that, Paul tends to get the better of Rubio in their games against one another. Rubio is averaging only 6.5 points, 8 assists and just under 3 steals against Paul in their last six meetings dating back two seasons, and if it weren’t for one big triple-double almost one year ago, Rubio would be averaging just over 20 FanDuel points in his last five meetings with Paul. Don’t chase the points from the last few games with Rubio because it could end up blowing up in your face.
Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Price: $7,000
DraftKings Price: $6,800
It’s hard to ignore the season that Danilo Gallinari has had, but tonight may not be the night. Gallinari is going up against the Jazz -- not the greatest matchup when you are looking to find small forwards to put in your lineups.
Gallinari has been lighting the world on fire this season, and his Usage Rate of 23 percent is the highest in his career. However, Utah owns the fourth best defense against small forwards this season, and even more under the radar is how good Gordon Hayward has looked on that end of the floor. Hayward is in the midst of another breakout season as well, and with Derrick Favors back, Hayward doesn’t have to shoulder as big a load on offense and can focus on the defensive end.
Hayward’s Defensive Rating of 106 ranks him inside the top half of the league’s starting small forwards in that category, and in their previous meetings, Hayward has gotten the best of Gallinari. Gallinari has only averaged around 20 FanDuel points in his previous two games against Hayward, and while Gallinari may seem like a safe option by looking at his game log, he tends to struggle against slower paced teams who are good at defending small forwards. Utah, of course, plays at the slowest pace of any team this season at 90.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel Price: $6,800
DraftKings Price: $6,100
Tonight against the Heat, Dirk Nowitzki's price is still pretty fair, but his matchup is not a great one, and it could lead to him not paying off his price tag yet again. While he has been rather consistent recently, Dirk has failed to pay off the “five times” value threshold needed to pay off salary in five straight games, and tonight, he gets the league’s second best defense against power forwards in the Miami Heat.
A big variable in all of this is whether or not Hassan Whiteside will play tonight. If he does, Chris Bosh will slide back to power forward, and Nowitzki might get bottled up at times. Bosh owns a Defensive Rating of 103, which is top 10 in the league among starting power forwards. In their first meeting this season, Bosh limited Nowitzki to only 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting. In their last three matchups against one another, Nowitzki is shooting only 31 percent from the floor and averaging only 13 points and 5 rebounds per game. Combine that with Miami's pace of 92.4, and the value threshold for Nowitzki is not there tonight.