NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/7/13
A note concerning Fan Duel: With only two games today, Fan Duel is combining today's players with tomorrow's players and having a two-day competition. As our optimal rosters are tabulated daily with the freshest information available, we won't have a Fan Duel optimal roster for today. It doesn't quite work with our algorithm. Sorry, guys and gals.
But as always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
DraftStreet Optimized Roster
The Best of the Best
Kevin Durant - I'd be extremely interested to see the percentage of StarStreet and DraftStreet rosters that contain Kevin Durant today. If it's not north of 75 percent, then I'd be absolutely shocked. On a day where Carmelo Anthony is questionable, the Clippers stars will split stats, and the Nuggets don't have a standout player, Durant is really the only 100% pure option on the board. And that was before taking into account New York's worst-of-the-night 106.1 defensive rating or their atrocious .557 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed to opposing small forwards.
Chris Paul - It's probably going to be a toss-up for most people between CP3 and Blake Griffin tonight, but for my fake hypothetical money, I'm taking the guard. Denver allows a similar shooting percentage to both point guards (.488 eFG%) and power forwards (.489 eFG%), is second in the league in offensive rebounding percentage (31.3 percent of opportunities), and runs the second-quickest pace in the league (which often favors guard play). Neither one has played that exceptional against Denver this season - Paul's averaging 12 PPG and Griffin 12.5 PPG in two contests - but Paul is more likely to reverse the trend.
Tyson Chandler - OKC doesn't have too many weaknesses, but even Superman has his Kryptonite. For the Thunder, those just-can't-do-it vices are turnover percentage and rebounding ability. It's the latter that makes Tyson Chandler the supervillain tonight; his 19.6 percent total rebound percentage (TRB%) sits fifth-best in the NBA. The Thunder are just average rather than terrible at rebounding, at 15th in offensive rebounding percentage and 19th on the defensive side, but that relative weakness is just enough to make Chandler a solid play.
Top Mid-Range Values
Raymond Felton - Remember that other weakness, Oklahoma's City penchant for turning the ball over and not forcing turnovers? That should help out this guy a great deal. With a 2.0 percent steal rate, Felton doesn't swipe the ball a ton, but Westbrook's carelessness with the ball is enough to give Felton 1.2 projected steals tonight. Felton's 13.9 percent offensive turnover rate is one of the best among NBA point guards as well; Oklahoma City's not going to take the ball back too often. Coming off last night's 26 point effort against Detroit, he's hot shooting as well. It's positives all around for Felton.
Amar'e Stoudemire - We may be doubling down on the Knicks tonight, but it's for a good reason: there are going to be a lot of points scored in that OKC/NYK contest, and with Carmelo currently a game-time decision (and possibly limited if he does play), somebody is going to be pouring in those points. Consider Amar'e a solid contender for that job. With Melo hampered the last two games, Stoudemire has posted two straight contests of over 30 minutes played, 27 percent usage rating while on the court, and 114 offensive rating. Even if he doesn't accomplish the last number tonight, the expected combination of the first two should make him a solid play.
Danilo Gallinari - A funny thing happened on Tuesday night against the Sacramento Kings: Danilo Gallinari became Danilo Gallinari again. After struggling and being hampered with injuries over his past couple of games, Gallinari exploded for 23 points in 36 minutes. It was only his second double-digit scoring game since February 10. However, our analytics see him returning to his average production soon... but his cost hasn't quite caught up yet. Take advantage while his cost is still in the post-injury low zone and his production is returning to normal.