NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 2/5/13
The key to solid projections is consistency. Well, how's 9-0 in Head-to-Head StarStreet matchups for you? That's what Chief Analyst Keith Goldner has been able to do with our optimized projections over the past two weeks. And even playing in the free games, where his sports knowledge would give him an estimated 80 percent chance to win, winning nine straight still only has 13.4 percent odds of actually occurring.
Our math's just that good, I guess.
Through the power of Math!, we've optimized the best possible roster for your Daily Fantasy needs, using the cost figures and scoring system from our friends at StarStreet as a guide.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. But I'm here to break down the best of the best and tell you why they're so valuable.
The numberFire Optimized Roster
| Player | Position | Projected FP | Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Lee | F/C | 38.25 | $14,800 | 2.58 |
| Stephen Curry | G | 34.85 | $13,500 | 2.58 |
| Brandon Jennings | PG | 33.4 | $12,600 | 2.65 |
| Brook Lopez | C | 34.18 | $12,500 | 2.73 |
| Monta Ellis | G | 33.30 | $12,400 | 2.69 |
| Roy Hibbert | C | 28.08 | $10,600 | 2.65 |
| Gerald Wallace | F | 21.90 | $8,200 | 2.67 |
| Tayshaun Prince | F | 22.50 | $8,000 | 2.81 |
| Corey Brewer | G/F | 19.78 | $7,100 | 2.79 |
David Lee - So, we have the second-best scorer and top rebounder on the 10th-most efficient offensive team in the league. He's going against a Houston team with the fastest pace in the NBA that is 24th in opponent's effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and 20th in offensive rebound percentage. Am I the only one getting extraordinarily excited here?
Stephen Curry - So, we have the best scorer and top assist man on the 10th-most efficient offensive team in the league. He's going against a Houston team with the fastest pace in the NBA that is 24th in opponent's eFG%, 17th in turnovers forced, and dead last in turnovers made. Am I the only one getting extraordinarily excited here? No, that's just deja vu? Well, fine then.
Brandon Jennings - Denver is only an average matchup for Jennings, but it might not matter who he plays when you're on the type of run that he is. With at least 5 assists in each of his past eight games, 14 points in each of his last five games, and 20 points in three of his past five games, Jennings is a model of consistency recently for Milwaukee. Facing a team with the second-quickest pace in the NBA can't hurt, either.
Brook Lopez - No Dwight Howard for the Lakers means a more open middle of the lane for Lopez. Dwight Howard has a 100 defensive rating on the season; Pau Gasol sits at a 106 offensive rating. And on the season, Gasol's allowing opposing centers to shoot .525 eFG% from the field, which is more than 20 percentage points higher than when he plays at PF.
Monta Ellis - Monta Ellis: passing freak? He's surely seemed that way recently. Ellis put up a season-high 11 assists against Orlando on Saturday, and he now he nine assists in three of his past seven games. On the season, Ellis's 25.7 percent assist rate ranks third on the Bucks behind the two point guards. That's why it's not only his projected 20.5 points, but also his projected 5.5 assists that have him on our list.
Roy Hibbert - Al Horford may have made the leap to being an elite big man, but that doesn't mean that teams won't attack the Hawks down low. Opposing centers are shooting .496 eFG% against them this season, the second-highest shot percentage of any position on the floor behind power forward. With the Hawks ranking only 26th in offensive rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding, both points and rebounds will be in play for Hibbert tonight.
Gerald Wallace - Haven't heard much from Gerald Wallace this season? There's a good chance that will change with Metta World Peace serving a one-game suspension tonight. Backup Lakers small forward Antawn Jamison has allowed opposing small forwards to shoot .531 eFG% against him at that position this year (as compared to .494 eFG% at PF). And sliding Kobe over might not be the best solution either; opposing small forwards shoot .503 eFG% against him there (as compared to only .463 eFG% at SG).
Tayshaun Prince - Time to issue another value alert: get all you can for Tayshaun Prince while he's only at $8,000 before his value on the Grizzlies returns to normal. After playing 32 minutes off the bench in his Grizzlies debut, he gets his first start tonight against Phoenix. That's enough reason alone for me to believe he'll hit the projected 33.1 minutes. And Phoenix's 24th-ranked defensive rating (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) is enough reason for me to believe he'll hit the projected 13.4 points as well.
Corey Brewer - Easily the most boom-or-bust name on our list today, Brewer's value is solely dependent on his shooting. Some days, he could go 8-12 like he did against New Orleans last Friday. Other days, he could go 2-7 like he did against Sacramento just four games ago. Milwaukee's defense against small forwards (.451 eFG%) actually makes me lean towards the latter, but among the value today at $7,400 or lower, he's the best risk on the board.
Quick Hits
Your medium-sized sleeper of the day is George Hill of the Indiana Pacers. 38 minutes against the Bulls yesterday leads me to believe that shoulder won't be a problem, and that instantly makes him one of the best values today at only $9,600. The Atlanta Hawks allow opposing point guards to shoot .488 eFG% and score 20.4 points per game against them from that position this season. For Hill and his team-leading 113 offensive rating, the ceiling should be even higher.
Your deep sleeper of the day is Jodie Meeks of the Los Angeles Lakers. With Dwight Howard and Metta World Peace both out for tonight's game, don't be surprised to see Jodie Meeks pick up a good deal of playing time for the Lakers. The most likely configuration that we will see is Kobe sliding over to small forward, with Meeks stepping up and taking on Joe Johnson and his 111 defensive rating. For the price of $5,000, my mouth just began to water a bit.
Stay away from Chandler Parsons of the Rockets today. The Warriors are a better defensive team than you'd think, ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating and seventh in opponents' eFG%. And that's doubly true against small forwards, who are shooting only .440 eFG% against the Warriors this season.
The game to watch today is Rockets/Warriors. Not only will Harden probably be the most popular top-priced option, but Lee and Curry will be exceptionally popular second-tier options (as they are on our optimized roster) because of the pace these two teams play at. Watch out for Jeremy Lin as well; he typically does well in these fast-paced battles, and his price is down due to a lingering injury he's expected to play through.
