NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/19/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jamal Murray Under 2.5 Made Threes (+118)
Jamal Murray went 4 for 10 from deep in the Denver Nuggets' Game 1 win, but I think he stays under his made threes prop in Game 2.
Down the stretch, the Minnesota Timberwolves tightened up their perimeter defense and allowed the lowest three-point attempt rate (31.7%) over the final 15 games of the campaign. They really bottled up point guards from three, giving up just 2.3 made treys per night to the position during that span (the sixth-fewest).
Obviously, Murray found plenty of room to shoot in Game 1, getting off 10 three-point tries. That may have been a little flukey. Murray took only 6.4 threes per game in the regular season, and he's due to regress from downtown as he nailed an unsustainable 49.3% of his three-pointers across his final 10 games of the regular season.
Our model has Murray projected to go 2.6 of 6.6 today from beyond the arc. That's right at this line, but with the under priced at +118 -- compared to a -148 price on the over -- the under is the side I want to be on.
Dillon Brooks Under 14.5 Points (-114)
Ja Morant is a question mark for Game 2, and his status obviously has a big impact on the usage of the Memphis Grizzlies. But it doesn't change things for Dillon Brooks too much.
Assuming Morant doesn't play -- which seems likely, per Adrian Wojnarowski -- and adding in the absences of Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Jake LaRavia, Brooks' usage rate in tonight's expected floor condition is 19.9%, according to CourtIQ. That's actually down 2.2 percentage points from his season-long usage rate.
Brooks went over this line in Game 1, netting 15 points. Game 1 was Brooks' fourth time facing the Los Angeles Lakers this season, and it was the first time he scored more than 13 points against them. He averaged only 9.7 points per game through the first three contests, and Morant missed one of those games.
We project Brooks to put up 12.6 points tonight.
