NBA

NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/9/23

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Feb 9th, 2023

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 Made Threes (-143)

Nikola Jokic needs to nail just one three-pointer to cash this bet, and I like his chances to do that in a clash with the Orlando Magic.

Over the last 15 games, Orlando is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 43.3%, the second-highest in the league. That should help Jokic -- who doesn't normally take many triples -- fire off a few three-point shots tonight.

Jokic has made a three in five of his last nine games and went 1-for-4 from three-point land against the Magic earlier this season.

We project Jokic to make 1.3 threes on 3.8 attempts.

Cam Thomas Under 25.5 Points (-106)

Two weeks ago, I would've had a lot of questions if someone told me Cam Thomas' points prop was at 25.5. But that's where it's at after his incredible stretch, a run that's resulted in him netting at least 43 points in three straight games.

Maybe Thomas' red-hot run continues today, but our model loves the under.

Thomas is hitting 56.0% of his shots over the last three games, including that same 56.0% clip from three. Prior to this run, he was shooting 47.3% overall and 36.0% from beyond the arc, so he's bound to regress, especially from deep.

The same goes for his usage rate, which stands at a gaudy 42.1% over the last three. Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo are tied for the league lead in usage at a mark of 37.6%, and the Brooklyn Nets won't be quite as thin today with Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie set to play.

Our algorithm has Thomas scoring 20.8 points, well south of this line.