NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/15/22: Targeting 3 Totals Tonight

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks

Under 211.5 (-110)

numberFire's model is viewing the under as a three-star play (i.e. a three-unit wager). These teams have been extremely overrated in terms of overs so far this year.

While the Dallas Mavericks have gone over in 8 of 12 games, they've done so by an average of just 0.5 points. More importantly, they have gone over their own implied team total in just 4 of 12 games (falling short by an average of 3.5 points). Accounting for health and leverage, the Mavs' offensive rating is a stellar 117.8, which would rank second on the full season. However, they're a better-than-average defense, and this has more to do with the other side than Dallas' data anyway.

For the Los Angeles Clippers, their overall over rate is 21.4%, with a discrepancy of 8.4 points on average -- to the under, naturally. Their own implied team total numbers are basically the same: -8.5 on average with an under rate of 21.4%. Their offensive rating (108.1) would rank 28th on the full season, and their defense (109.1 points per 100 possessions) also points to the under.

This game should have a terribly slow pace, as well, as the Clippers rank 20th in pace and the Mavericks are -- by far -- last.

New York Knicks at Utah Jazz

Over 230.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz -5.0 (-110)
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-205)

These two teams average 230.5 combined points, and the total is exactly that -- but I think that's a bit too low.

In games with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson but with Mitchell Robinson out, the New York Knicks have a fine net rating of -0.3. However, that's tied to an over-friendly 117.0 offensive rating and a 117.3 defensive rating. As full-season ranks, those would rank second-highest and fourth-highest, respectively.

The Utah Jazz have relevant splits that put their offensive rating at 117.0, as well, with a still worse-than-average defensive rating of 113.0. My model projects a total of 238.5 as a result -- once accounting for the pace these teams play at in these samples.

With the inverse of what we've seen with the Clippers and Mavericks, these two teams tend to outperform the bookmakers' expectations in terms of implied totals. Each has surpassed their respective rate in more than 60.0% of their games.

numberFire's model thinks the spread should be 9.5 points; mine has it at 6.9, as well.

Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings

Over 226.5 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets +2.0 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (+108)

The total for this has climbed from 224.5 to 226.5, and there's still a lean on that over (I have it at 230.0, and numberFire's model has it at 229.7). It's not as good as it was earlier, but it's still in play.

The algo here at numberFire does favor Brooklyn outright (58.7%) and views them as 63.4% likely to cover a 2.0-point spread as road underdogs.

My adjusted point data actually suggests that the Nets (3-4 on the road) have been the best road team once you've accounted for expectations and opponents. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings (3-3 at home) are just average there.

Overall, my adjusted point numbers have Brooklyn (+3.0) better than the Kings (+1.3), and their relevant net rating without Kyrie Irving is actually a +2.8.