3 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 11/3/22
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays.
If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at some players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on FanDuel tonight, using numberFire's daily fantasy basketball projections as a guide.
Draymond Green, PF/C, Golden State Warriors
FanDuel Salary: $5,700
I'll refrain from talking about both Draymond Green ($5,700) and Klay Thompson ($5,200) and will just lump them in separately, so consider this four value plays and not three.
Draymond (5.41 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) and Thompson (5.26) are the top-two projected value plays by numberFire's model.
Green is averaging just 0.94 FanDuel points per minute, a nine-year low (after being above 1.00 in each of the prior eight seasons), but that's still a reasonable rate.
Thompson's mark is only 0.78, an eight-year low for him. Last season, he was at 1.05 in his limited time. Yes, the shooting is a real concern. He's just 35.1% from the field, the only time in his career he's been below 42.2%, and he's 29.5% from three, the only time he's been below 38.5% (last season).
Green's the safer play. Thompson, if he heats up even to his numbers from last year, will be able to dominate value. Bumping up from 0.78 FanDuel points per minute to roughly 1.00 where he's been in the past would be massive over his 27.9 projected minutes.
Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Is Jamal Murray close to the minimum salary? No. Are there numerous appealing options in the $3,500 to $4,500 range? Not really, no. That should matter to us.
In Murray's last game out, he put up a season-high 21 shots in a season-high 31 minutes. He also pitched in four rebounds and five assists with just a single turnover.
Last month against the Thunder, Murray generated 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals (with 5 turnovers) for 29.3 FanDuel points in what was his best game until his most recent matchup.
Murray offers multi-position eligibility tonight, and that'll help him be preferred to other lower-salaried options.
He's 49.9% likely to finish as a top-five primary guard option across my slate simulations.
Bruce Brown, SG, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Salary: $4,700
Frankly, most of the other better value plays of the night are at the high end of the value range: Bol Bol ($5,800), Aaron Gordon ($5,900), Lu Dort ($6,000).
But I'll go down below $5,000 and stick with the Denver Nuggets here and talk about Bruce Brown.
Brown is projected for 23.6 minutes, 4.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 combined steals and blocks for 21.1 FanDuel points tonight. That's a bit on the low end for what we'd like on a full slate, but the salary will help us out without being careless and taking on risk for someone whose minutes are in major question.
Brown has played 33, 30, and 27 minutes in his past three games while posting some respectable shot volume: 12, 7, and 10 shots. That includes 6, 3, and 6 three-point attempts (4.7 per game).
In that split, Brown is averaging 22.6 FanDuel points and 0.74 per minute. Since his second year in the NBA, Brown has managed 0.84, 0.93, and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute.
Though it's a new team this year and though the role isn't identical to his past roles, he's likely more productive long-term than he has been to start the year.
The underlying data, according to DARKO, suggests Brown should be averaging 0.86 FanDuel points per minute.
