FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 11/3/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, basketball daily fantasy would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
Well, as a result, NBA daily fantasy is extremely reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
There's still some injury report traffic today with just two games in tow.
This slate has the Oklahoma City Thunder on it, so don't check out around lock and assume the injury front stays quiet.
The only downside to Curry is that several of his teammates are also great choices on this slate. Unlike in previous years, his usage rate (30.8%) and per-minute-FanDuel-point production (1.45) match his salary at his median outcome -- not just his ceiling.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) isn't a bad consolation prize. He's posted more than 57 FanDuel points in every game in which he's scored at least 30 real-life ones -- which is four of six. I'd prefer Josh Giddey ($7,300) if I knew both were destined for full-time roles, but Giddey played only 25 minutes in a return from injury on Tuesday.
Considering he posted more than 30 minutes for the first time all year on Sunday, Jamal Murray ($5,600) might be under-salaried if that's his new standard.
However, I prefer Jalen Suggs ($5,300) in this range. Suggs could have a sizable role if he enters the starting lineup tonight in his second game back from injury. He played 28 minutes last time out off the bench, so he's pretty healthy.
He's likely over-salaried, but Paolo Banchero ($8,500) will be an intriguing contrarian stud on this slate. His usage rate (26.8%) hasn't really dropped a ton in his two-game slump, but Bol Bol ($5,800) has eaten into his rebounding total. He's still clearly the Magic's lead scoring option.
It's tough to justify Andrew Wiggins ($8,000) at this salary with Banchero so close. Wiggins hasn't cracked 40 FanDuel points since October 23rd. That almost immediately coincides with when Klay Thompson ($5,200) returned to a full-time role, and Klay (25.7% usage) squeezed out Wiggins (19.0%) in that time.
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,000) battled foul trouble last time out and played just 27 minutes. The only issue is this salary is again high. He's exceeded 35 FanDuel points (a 5.00 value score here) just once all season.
OKC allows the most FanDuel points per game to centers. That's the only thing keeping Nikola Jokic ($11,500) on the radar.
Jokic has averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute this season with Murray and Porter Jr. on the floor, which is fine but also nowhere close to what is required for this salary. It's zero coincidence Jokic's two 60-FanDuel-point efforts came with one of those two out of the lineup.
The aforementioned Bol Bol feels like the must-play option if he starts again. Orlando has started him in two straight and has given him a total of roughly 60 minutes in that span. He's rewarded them with 1.17 FanDuel points per minute. He's probably not going back to the reserves tonight, either, if Suggs starts. That'll likely be Ross exiting the starting five.
Teammate Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,600) blew up last game for 30 points and 12 boards. As a result, his salary ballooned for this two-game slate to the high end of his range of outcomes thus far. I'll likely pass.
Draymond Green ($5,700) is in a tier of his own today as a value play among bigs. Outside of him, only Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,000) and Kevon Looney ($4,400) rate out with value scores above 4.50, but Looney is in a platoon with James Wiseman, and Pokusevski -- failing to exceed 25 FanDuel points in any game before Tuesday -- is far from a given in his split with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.