3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/1/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Max Strus Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+102)

Max Strus is averaging 7.3 three-point attempts and 2.6 three-point makes per game this season across 30.8 minutes. That works out to a three-point percentage of 35.3%.

His career rate is 38.8%, so we could see some positive regression for him from deep.

The Golden State Warriors are letting up 36.1 three-point attempts per game, a top-10 rate in the NBA, and that should yield a safe floor of shots tonight.

numberFire projects Strus for 2.6 made threes, and my model has him at 3.0. We can enjoy the slight plus money opportunity here.

Klay Thompson Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)

Klay Thompson's per-game stat line of 12.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists total just 17.5, and that looks like a super inclination on the under.

However, he's averaged just 24.9 minutes per game thanks to two games with under 20 minutes. Tonight, Klay is projected for a more accurate 30.2 minutes tonight. That comes along with 15.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (22.0 combined).

The reason I like the over even at -125 odds is that he should be experiencing shooting regression soon. He's shooting just 34.6% from the field and 28.6% from three. He's a career 41.5% three-point shooter. Even if we give him credit just for his post-injury return season a year ago, he shot 38.5%.

Perhaps the best shooting days are behind him, but he shouldn't be sub-30% forever.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120)

This is a pretty high number to reach, and it's too high for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, according to numberFire's model.

Gilgeous-Alexander's relevant projection is 26.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.9 assists (39.0 total).

The underlying data says the assists and rebounds check out but that the points are too high. Gilgeous-Alexander's shooting splits are up noticeably from last year (when they were down from usual).

That said, he's hit all 30 free-throws (as a career 81.2% shooter) and is outperforming his career average (34.8%) from beyond the arc (36.8%).

This is mostly a bet against the shooting splits.