NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 10/27/22: A Pair of Unders to Target
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets
Under 225.5 (-110) - 5 stars
Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (+130) - 1 star
The 1-3 Brooklyn Nets are on a back-to-back after playing in and losing to Milwaukee last night (110-99).
Meanwhile, the 1-2 Dallas Mavericks have had a day off after a 113-111 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Mavericks have had two losses by two points. The Nets' three losses were all by 10 or more points. Despite that, our algorithm has just a lean on the moneyline, and that's actually on the Nets (+130).
What's more appealing is the under (225.5). Our algorithm projects a low total of 213.1 as a median outcome, and the total is dropping, so it's pretty clear that that's where the attention is.
These are two fun offensive teams (at least in theory), but since the start of last year, the Mavericks have the lowest over rate (41.6%) of any NBA team, and the Nets (48.4%) are also below the NBA average (50.0%).
Be careful with how quickly this one is falling, but the model still likes the under below 220.0 points.
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 217.5 (-108)
Conversely, the over for this matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder is climbing and up from 215.0 at the open.
The only team without an over so far this season is the Clippers (0-4 with an average point total sitting 14.6 points under the over/under), and the Thunder are just 1-3 on the over (falling short by an average of 2.8 points).
Within the totals are some intriguing trends: the Thunder have not allowed an opponent to go over their implied team total, and the Clippers haven't outscored their own yet this season.
The Clippers have a non-garbage-time offensive rating of just 101.0, ranking them 29th in the NBA. Further, Kawhi Leonard is out, and Paul George is questionable (though he seems likely to play). Oklahoma City is 27th in non-garbage-time offensive rating (105.4).
Meanwhile, both defenses are top 12. The Clippers' defensive rating sits at 106.1 (5th), and the Thunder's is 110.2 (12th).
On Tuesday, these teams played, a game in which the Clippers won 108-94 (a total of just 202 points).
