NBA

5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 10/19/22

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Oct 19th, 2022
Kelly Oubre's role was strong without LaMelo Ball last season. Which other salary-saving options can we turn to tonight?

One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays.

If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.

Let's take a look at some players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on FanDuel tonight.

Josh Giddey, SG/PG, Oklahoma City Thunder ($6,000)

The $6,000 tag on Josh Giddey is about the max of what we can consider a "value" in NBA DFS on FanDuel, yet it's hard to gloss over his chance for upside at a still-low salary.

Giddey is projected for 34.0 FanDuel points and 33.6 minutes based on our model. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 10.5-point underdogs in this matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, yes, but the 20.5% projected usage rate and 1.01 FanDuel-point-per-minute projection puts him on a path to smash value.

Among guard-eligible options with salaries of $6,000 or lower, Giddey's ceiling (45.2 FanDuel points) is one of just three above 40.0 based on my simulation model.

Kelly Oubre, SF/SG, Charlotte Hornets ($5,100)

Without LaMelo Ball in the lineup, Kelly Oubre should see a usage boost.

Last season without Ball, Oubre managed a team-best 25.9% usage rate, via RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool. He also averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute in that split. With Ball on the floor, Oubre's rates were 19.8% and 0.83, respectively.

Tonight, our model has him slated for a 25.0% usage rate across 30.6 projected minutes. In total, he's pegged for 29.6 FanDuel points -- or 5.81 per $1,000 in salary. He's a strong value option with a path to upside.

Brandon Clarke, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies ($4,400)

The Memphis Grizzlies boast a top-tier implied team total of 115.25 points against the New York Knicks, and that should inject efficiency into the minutes that Brandon Clarke plays tonight (our model has him set at 26.2) while the Grizzlies are light in the frontcourt.

Clarke, a year ago, put up just 23.3 FanDuel points per game but did so on an average of only 19.5 minutes. On a per-minute basis, Clarke generated a stellar 1.20 FanDuel points in the regular season.

My model has him set at 24.4% to be at top-five value across the slate, the second-best mark of the entire night.

Saddiq Bey, SF, Detroit Pistons ($5,200)

A knee injury to Marvin Bagley III will keep him out for a few weeks to start the season, thus freeing up minutes in the Detroit Pistons' frontcourt.

A likely candidate to reap those rewards is Saddiq Bey. Bey is projected for 31.3 minutes and 32.2 FanDuel points from our model. Last season, Bey averaged a healthy 28.9 FanDuel points per game across 33.0 minutes.

The Orlando Magic were just 23rd in rebounding rate and 19th in defensive rating a year ago.

Notably, this game has just a 2.5-point spread, so we could see starters go until the final buzzer, as well.

Jabari Smith, PF, Houston Rockets ($4,800)

The third overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Jabari Smith should be freed up to do some work in his NBA debut.

Jae'Sean Tate has been ruled out, and that should pave the way for Smith to get minutes. Smith is projected for 29.5 minutes against the Atlanta Hawks, and sure, preseason is preseason, but Smith averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute in his only game.

He put up 21 points on 15 shot attempts and cleared 8 rebounds in that spot.

Our model is projecting Smith for 5.52 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary, which is a really strong value projection even on a huge slate.