NBA Finals: Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 1
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jaylen Brown Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)
Our model likes Jaylen Brown to have a big night in Game 1.
The Golden State Warriors' defense will be the easiest -- insert air quotes -- defense the Boston Celtics have faced since the opening round. Golden State has allowed a lot of three-point tries in the playoffs, permitting a three-point attempt rate of 44.7%, the fourth-highest among all playoff teams. Their 111.0 defensive rating in the postseason ranks just sixth-best in these playoffs.
Despite tough matchups against the top-shelf defenses of the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat in 14 of his 18 games this postseason, Brown is averaging 22.9 points, 6.8 boards and 3.5 assists in the playoffs. That's 33.2 combined points, rebounds and dimes -- nearly over this line.
Our projections for Game 1 have Brown totaling 25.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists -- which amounts to 36.0 points, rebounds and assists.
Robert Williams to Record 2+ Blocks (-164)
In the last round, facing a Dallas Mavericks team that often went small with Maxi Kleber at the five, the Dubs played Looney at least 28 minutes in four of the five games. Looney answered the bell, playing great in the series and snagging at least 12 boards in three of the games.
Going up against a Boston squad that starts Williams and Al Horford, the Warriors might need to keep running Looney out there to combat the Celtics' size, and I'm guessing they're OK with that given how well Looney has played.
As long as Boston isn't forced to go small, Williams should see good minutes, and he's always been a per-minute monster. He's averaging 3.2 blocks per 36 minutes in these playoffs, and he's recorded multiple swats in eight of his last nine games, with his 14-minute showing in Game 7 against Miami being the lone exception.
Our model projects Williams for 1.9 blocks in 26.9 minutes, but I'm more bullish on his outlook -- oddsmakers are, too, with this priced at -164 -- as I think he has the ability to be a huge force for Boston in this matchup.