NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/25/22: Expect Another Momemtum Swing in Miami

The Heat were crushed in Game 4. Can they rebound at home and force Boston to the brink of elimination?

Game 4 was basically over when the Celtics blistered the Miami Heat with a 24-6 run to start. Amazingly, that was the fourth different quarter in this series decided by more than 20 points. What will Game 5 have in store?

Betting on the NBA can be tricky, but you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's game? All odds are from NBA odds, and all ratings are out of five stars.

Heat Moneyline (+110) - 2 Stars

I didn't really want to throw up the white flag on my "Celtics in 6" exact ticket, but the Heat are the sharper side tonight.

After their Game 4 blowout, Boston is a two-point road favorite receiving 68% of bets on FanDuel Sportsbook. That already sounds harrowing.

numberFire's model believes Miami wins this game outright 56.4% of the time, which creates absurd value juxtaposed with 47.6% implied odds here. It's not really a surprise; they're a good team at home that can't possibly play worse than they did in Game 4.

Amazingly, Miami shot 16-for-54 (29.7%) from the two-point area in Boston. Anecdotally, it came via plenty of missed layups, fouls not called on the road, and floaters you usually see Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry convert.

I see tonight's game as closer to a pick 'em, and in that case, it's hard to pass on the home side at plus money.

Over 204.0 (-110) - 1 Star

It's a massive upset the overall pace in this series has been comparable to what we've seen out west.

The 94.88 average pace here isn't stellar, but compare it to the 96.13 average pace between Golden State and Dallas. Those two squads have had a total hovering around 215.0 in their series, and that means just a 204.0 mark here feels like great value due to the defensive reputation of both of these teams.

It's delivered that way in this series. The first three contests sailed over this total, and Miami's starters scored just 18 points in Game 4. That astoundingly terrible performance is going to sail under any total anywhere.

numberFire's model doesn't like betting overs but does feel this one stays north of the total 53.0% of the time. Compared to the standard 52.5% implied odds at -110, there's one-star (i.e - one unit) value on the "over" here.

Of the 20 recent games mirroring this one in the model, 11 eclipsed the 204.0-point mark in this spot.

Swaim-Game Parlay (+505)

Heat Moneyline
Kyle Lowry 2+ Made Threes
Jimmy Butler 1+ Steals Recorded
Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 Points

Just one game a day means it's Same-Game Parlay season now more than ever on FanDuel Sportsbook. For some fun, I drop 0.25 units a day on one to see if it hits. Feel free to tail mine...or create your own!

I feel cursed. The Swaim Game Parlay was all but cashed on Tuesday before Golden State's bench unit made a furious comeback that rallied the game over 215.5 points. We're very close, though.

In the spirit of taking the sharp side from earlier, today's cornerstone bet is the value with Heat Moneyline (+110). Scripting around a Heat win is pretty simple since it's unexpected.

Kyle Lowry has returned and played decently well for Miami. Lowry has posted 2.1 three-point makes on 7.1 attempts per 36 minutes since returning, and that's well below his 37.7% three-point mark from the regular season. With that being the case, I feel tremendous adding Kyle Lowry 2+ Threes Made (-160) in an event where Miami wins and puts points on the board.

I'll go back to Monday's well that was disrupted by a blowout, too. Jimmy Butler had recorded a steal in nine straight games before Game 4 left him well short of his usual minutes. He's projected by numberFire's model for 2.0 steals, but as a conservative kicker to bump the price on today's lay, I added Jimmy Butler 1+ Steals Recorded (-650).

My favorite part of this parlay though is taking Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 Points (-112) on the other side. Tatum is not only projected for 26.3 points by numberFire at the median, but his scoring revival from Game 4 isn't sustainable. He still struggled to 1-for-7 shooting from three-point land, and he rode a wave of 18 free throws to reach 31 points. Those calls aren't likely coming at the same frequency in South Beach.