NBA

NBA Conference Finals: How to Bet the Celtics/Heat and Warriors/Mavericks Series

What are the most likely series results for the NBA's Conference Finals? See what numberFire's model thinks.

The NBA Finals is down to the final four teams. The conference finals are about to get underway, so we have some series betting odds to break down before they tip off.

Here is how each team looks in the betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the NBA Finals plus their win odds based in numberFire's algorithm.

NBA Finals OddsFanDuel Sportsbook
Odds
numberFire
Projection
Golden State Warriors+13035.5%
Boston Celtics+21038.3%
Miami Heat+43014.8%
Dallas Mavericks+65011.4%


That puts the best betting value on the Boston Celtics to win it all.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. What about these conference finals? Using 10,000 simulations with numberFire's data, here are the most and least likely results of the upcoming series.

Eastern Conference Finals
Miami Heat (+145) vs. Boston Celtics (-175)

Most Likely Winner: Boston Celtics (62.3%)
numberFire's Most Likely Result: Boston Celtics in 6 (24.2%)
Regular Season Series Results: Boston Celtics 2, Miami Heat 1

The model here is projecting the Celtics to be 60.0% favorites over the Miami Heat, odds that suggest a moneyline of -165. That leaves 37.7% win odds for the Heat, suggesting odds of +165.

Eastern Conference
Final Result
FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds
numberFire
Projection
4 Games +600 12.9%
5 Games +260 23.6%
6 Games +180 33.1%
7 Games +195 30.4%


Based on the value, the market I'm preferring is the exact result.

Eastern Conference
Final Result
FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds
numberFire
Projection
Boston Celtics 4-1 +500 14.4%
Boston Celtics 4-2 +290 24.9%
Boston Celtics 4-3 +500 12.8%
Boston Celtics 4-0 +800 10.2%
Miami Heat 4-0 +2200 2.7%
Miami Heat 4-1 +750 9.3%
Miami Heat 4-2 +750 8.2%
Miami Heat 4-3 +450 17.6%


The best bets here would be the Celtics to win 4-2 or the Heat to win 4-3.

Western Conference Finals
Dallas Mavericks (+185) vs. Golden State Warriors (-220)

Most Likely Winner: Golden State Warriors (67.56%)
numberFire's Most Likely Result: Golden State Warriors in 5 (21.78%)
Regular Season Series Results: Dallas Mavericks 3, Golden State Warriors 1

Western Conference
Final Result
FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds
numberFire
Projection
4 Games +550 12.3%
5 Games +230 27.5%
6 Games +200 30.0%
7 Games +200 30.3%


The most likely result, again Warriors in 5, is looking like the best bet of these if it's a market you're seeking.

Western Conference
Final Result
FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds
numberFire
Projection
Dallas Mavericks 4-0 +2400 3.3%
Dallas Mavericks 4-1 +1300 5.7%
Dallas Mavericks 4-2 +600 14.2%
Dallas Mavericks 4-3 +750 9.3%
Golden State Warriors 4-0 +750 9.0%
Golden State Warriors 4-1 +310 21.8%
Golden State Warriors 4-2 +420 15.8%
Golden State Warriors 4-3 +340 21.0%


Yes, Warriors 4-1 is the most likely result in the simulations, but that's only barely more likely than the Mavericks forcing a Game 7. Either way, it's hard to back the Mavericks from a mathematical standpoint here, yet the best actual value is on the Mavericks in six games, which is even value at +600.